Which Precious Metals Bull Market Are You Talking About?
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – (06-19-2026)
It is continually curious yet also confounding to hear so many resource sector prognosticators constantly moving the goal posts on when this precious metals bull market began, or opine on how long it’s been going, and address the dreaded question “Which inning are we in at this point in the PM bull market?”
In light of the recent corrective move over the last few months, following the epic parabolic move into January and February of this year, many generalist and sector specialist investors are legitimately wondering if that was the blow-off top of this PM bull market.
Precious Metals perma-bulls will run to the defense of the sector, suggesting we are still in the “early innings” of this bull, or point out that “most cyclical bull markets last years not months…” {OK, but the PM bull has been going many years now}
These comments should have any thinking person or student of this sector scratching their heads a little bit, and asking the crucial question:
“Which Precious Metals Bull Market Are You Talking About?”
We’ve seen a textbook precious metals bull market play out for the last decade in the gold price, for about 8 years in the highest quality gold senior producers, about 3-5 years in most of the mid-tier gold producers, gold mining ETFs, and silver, about 2-4 years in the silver mining ETFs and larger junior developers, and less than a year in the microcap PM juniors. This is precisely how bull markets unfold in each cycle…
It really comes down to which aspect or subsector of the precious metals complex someone is talking about when they are discussing THE PM BULL MARKET.
Some investors see everything through the rose-colored glasses of the few junior stocks they hold in their portfolios; but this should not be conflated with the overall PM bull market.
Even that concept that there is just one PM bull market to measure is fairly nebulous in nature. In reality, there have been various waves of the PM bull market.
Charts and data are brilliant in that they cancel out the narrative noise, focus in on the value signal, and as the old saying goes… “Documentation beats conversation.”
In this article we’ll focus on the factual evidence and pricing to highlight each wave of the precious metals bull market, as it unfolded, to assess where we are at, if it is still ongoing, and how much longer it could continue.
So, let’s get into it…
Gold’s Bull Market Began Over A Decade Ago At Its Major Low:
Just like bear markets begin at Major Tops, bull markets begin at Major Lows.
Gold’s last Major Low happened in December 2015 at $1045 (where the metal quit going down in the bear market that lasted from September 2011 through December 2015).
Gold went up 5X from $1045 in December 2015 to $5,626 in January of 2026, which is one heck of a solid move in the ‘currency of last resort.’ (the spot chart above indicates $5,608, but doesn’t show the future’s price, which was slightly higher)
Yes, there are some folks that believe the bull market in gold just got started more recently, because of looking at when the metal broke out in its “inflation-adjusted” levels, or even in “real terms” on a ratio chart versus US equity indexes.
Those points are interesting, but not required for an asset class to be in a “bull market.” There are no other stocks or sectors held to that same standard.
One does not assess whether financial stocks, or oil, or Tesla, or Microsoft is in a bull market in “inflation-adjusted terms” or by needing to see it break out on a ratio chart versus the DOW or S&P 500. That would be a nonsensical notion or presupposition to hold.
Gold seniors, like Wheaton Precious Metals, Kinross, Lundin Gold, Dundee Precious Metals, Agnico Eagle, Alamos Gold, etc… bottomed back in the late Summer to Fall of 2018, (mostly in the July-October timeframe); and have been running higher in a bull market for almost 8 years now.
There is no way anyone looking at the charts below can come to the conclusion that the PM bull market just got started for the senior producers. Sure, the acceleration phase of the bull market increased over the last couple years, but they’ve been running off their lows for many years now.
Yes, the March-April 2020 Pandemic Crash temporarily interrupted those longer-term trends already in motion; as a black swan event, but only very briefly.
(WPM) went up ~11X from the September 2018 low of $15.18 to the February 2026 high of $165.76
(KGC) went up over 16X from the October 2018 low of $2.38 to the January 2026 high of $39.11
(AEM) went up ~8X from the August 2018 low of $32.18 to the February 2026 high of $255.24.
Yes, technically the March 2020 “Pandemic Crash” low of $31 was a ‘lower low,’ but it was quite brief due to that exogenous event, and merely interrupted the trend that had already been solidly in place for a year and a half leading up to that. (AEM) is still up about the same amount (8.2X from that starting point) over the last 6 years.
(AGI) went up over 19X from the November 2018 low of $2.90 to the February 2026 high of $55.41
Dundee PMs [now DPM Metals] (DPMLF) went up 23.5X from the August 2018 low of $1.97 to the February 2026 high of $46.28.
(LUGDF) went up over 29X from the July 2018 low of $3.25 to the February 2026 high of $95.47
You get the idea… Clearly these gold producers bull markets are not still in the “early innings” at this point, almost 8 years into their epic runs higher.
Could they keep running higher? Of course they could, especially on the anticipated solid Q2 earnings that will be reported in about 1-2 months.
The point is, these stocks have been running for years and many are up double-digit-X moves; so who could fault any investors for ringing the registers on winning trades and booking some profits this year to then rotate into new opportunities.
Over the last few months, many of these same best-in-class gold producers have put in substantial corrections; giving investors that missed their big runs new opportunities to accumulate them into the weakness, and establish a better overall cost basis in them.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
One could make the case it bottomed back in September of 2018 at $17.28, around the same time as the other best-in-class gold senior producers we already noted above; and it was only interrupted by the March 2020 Pandemic Crash to briefly tag $16.18, before quickly recovering.
These 2 points would have been 6X or 7X, in roughly 8-year or 6-year moves respectively.
Even if people discount those earlier 2018 and 2020 lows and prefer to use the ‘higher low’ of $21.52 from the September 2022 “False Breakdown” in gold below $1680, then that was still a 5.4X move higher over the last 3.5 years… and hardly “just getting started.”
Silver daily chart:
Silver put in a key low during the March 2020 “Pandemic Crash” at $11.64, and then rallied up 10.4X to the recent peak in January 2026 at $121.64. That is quite the upside ripper in a metal on the periodic table over the last 6 years.
If people don’t want to use that ‘black swan’ market reset from 2020, and prefer using the $17.53 ‘higher low’ from the September 2022 “false breakdown” in the PM complex; then Silver still rallied almost 7X over the next 3.5 years.
Again Silver has had years of upside moves and outperformance, and has been a far cry from that $11.64 low for a long time now.
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) - daily chart:
(SILJ) put in a key low of $6.77 in May of 2019, and then rallied 6X over 7 years, through the recent peak of $41.10 in January 2026.
If we use the even ‘lower low’ of $4.84 from the March 2020 “Pandemic Crash”, then (SILJ) rallied up ~8.5X, over roughly 6 years to the recent peak in January 2026 at $41.10
If people don’t want to count that ‘black swan’ market reset from 2020 or the prior 2019 low, and prefer using the ‘higher low’ of $7.80 from February 2024, then (SILJ) moved up over 5X over the next 2 years. That’s quite impressive, and was essentially a mass re-rating and re-pricing of silver equities.
Despite that huge move higher in equities on a percentage basis, the silver equities never got much past pricing in $50-$60 silver into their valuations as producers or as the best development projects. If silver moved up 7X in 3.5 years, and the mining stocks are supposed to leverage that move 2:1 or 3:1…. then (SILJ) should have gone up 14X-21X… and yet it didn’t… That would have been “fully valued.”
About 2 years ago, coming off the February 2024 lows, is when we saw a number of the higher-cost and thus higher-torque growth-oriented PM producers finally kick it into gear.
One could make the case that these stocks did properly leverage the moves in the underlying metals, as their margins expanded in a more dramatic fashion in percentage terms. This is precisely why they were some of the heavier-weighted positions in the portfolio over the last couple years…. in anticipation of that torque.
Torque cuts in both directions though, so these same stocks that blew everyone’s doors off over the last year, are the ones that just had the ridiculous 50%-60%+ corrections since March; ironically as they were experiencing their fattest margins and putting in their best 2 earnings quarters of all time.
(ASM) went up 27X from the February 2024 low of $0.44 to the January 2026 peak at $11.99.
(DSVSF) went up 21X from the February 2024 low of $0.43 to the January 2026 peak at $9.11, and 24X from the September 2024 low of $0.38.
(SCZM) went up ~34X from the January 2024 low of $0.52 to the January 2026 peak at $17.65.
Many PM participants will say, fine – gold, silver, the ETFs, and the producers have been running for many years now, but not the junior developers or explorers…
Well, that really depends on how high quality they are… because the better-quality ones have also been running for years now.
(ABRA.TO) is one of the best silver development projects in the field today, but it has been running since late 2019 or the 2020 pandemic crash, up almost 99X in the last 7 years, and up ~16X since June of 2023 for the last 3 years.
Yes, to be fair, many other good juniors did take a while to engage in the PM bull market and really only took off in mid-2025 into Q1 of 2026. That was happening into the mature phase of a PM bull market, as laid out in all the examples up above.
(AMXEF) has graduated from a solid explorer to one of the more compelling gold developers in the field today, and yes it took a while to finally gain some traction with investors in this cycle.
(AMXEF) went up ~7X since its April 2025 “Tariff Tantrum” low of $0.57 to the January 2026 high at $4.00. Better late then never… right?
So where does that leave us now in this Precious Metals bull market?
Well, clearly this gold/silver bull didn’t “just get started” and we are now way past the “early innings.” Run from anyone telling you otherwise…
So, while the PM bull is no longer a young calf, and while it did get fat and happy by Q1 of 2026, it has now been partially eaten by a corrective bear over the last few months.
It’s still quite probable that this consolidation is building the energy for the PM bull to charge in yet another leg higher later in the year.
It is also possible that the parabolic blast up in January/February was the end of the PM bull market, but as mentioned here often, that doesn’t seem probable.
Regardless, this sector has clearly been in a cyclical bear market for the last few months and we’ll need to see if gold, silver, and the PM stocks can finally bottom here in the Summer Doldrums, and then mount a Fall rally with some gusto.
I’m still optimistic that we can see gold move to $6,000 or that silver can get back to triple digits again, as the secular bull market moves into its final phases.
In our KE Report discussion below, Cory and I review the technical weakness on the PM charts. We differ some in our reactions and outlook to the correction that we’ve seen play out over the last few months, hitting points for resource investors consideration on how they may approach portfolio management. We also bounce around to a number of different commodities in the middle to end of the discussion.
KER QuickTake – Summer Doldrums or Structural Shifts? Deep Dive into Precious Metals, Copper Stability, Oil Pullbacks
The resource markets are undergoing a critical shift. In this update, Cory and Shad are back with a new KER QuickTake to break down the technical damage across precious metals, a hawkish Fed, and why copper remains a structural standout insulated from the broader market chop.
Key Discussion Points
Precious Metals Face Serious Chart Damage
Key Insights: Recent bounces in gold and silver were short-lived, failing to hold crucial technical levels and raising the risk of a broader corrective phase.
Notable Quotes: “We’re seeing everything back down below the 200-day moving averages... a little bit of chart damage as we technically close the week.”
Market Trends & Data: Both gold (~$4,248 on futures contracts) and silver (~$66) have broken back below their 50-week and 200-day moving averages, establishing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. GDX ($82) and GDXJ ($107) are showing similar technical rejections.
A Multi-Billion Dollar Wave of Free-Trading Paper
Key Insights: Massive amounts of private placement stock from four months ago are hitting their hold-period expirations, flooding the sector with supply and creating heavy overhead selling pressure.
Notable Quotes: “This definitely leads to some downward momentum... that is another sign of paper that this sector needs to chew through.”
Market Trends & Data: Data from CEO.ca shows that while last week saw $622 million (CAD) of stock come free-trading, this week exploded to $1.44 billion (CAD) across 62 companies.
Actionable Takeaways: Expect persistent near-term weakness and choppy summer doldrums in junior equities as the market absorbs over $2 billion in liquid paper; hold higher cash balances to prepare for late-summer discounts.
The Fed’s Rate Hike Threat Re-emerges
Key Insights: The underlying monetary support for precious metals is shifting as sticky inflation and a stable job market give the Federal Reserve room to maintain a hawkish posture.
Notable Quotes: “The market is pricing in a 100% chance that we are going to get a rate hike by the end of the year.”
Market Trends & Data: Kevin Warsh’s recent arrival has streamlined the Fed’s communication style (shorter statements and press conferences) while signaling a more unified, data-dependent hawkish bias.
Actionable Takeaways: Be prepared for a “higher-for-longer” or outright tightening environment through Q3 and Q4, which historically keeps a lid on gold’s immediate upside.
Copper’s Secular Outperformance Remains Intact
Key Insights: Unlike precious metals, copper is safely holding its moving averages, driven by non-political, tech-funded global infrastructure demands rather than speculative macro sentiment.
Notable Quotes: “Copper’s a bull market... the world is in an infrastructure buildout led by major tech companies funding it.”
Market Trends & Data: Copper sits firmly at approximately $6.40, showing excellent resilience. The underlying equities have yet to fully price in these multi-year highs, signaling a lagging catch-up opportunity.
Actionable Takeaways: Copper developers and select producers offer an excellent defensive pivot. Watch for junior mining companies aggressively re-branding to highlight their copper assets or porphyry potential as the year progresses.
Continued Strength of Critical Minerals: Strong years in copper, lithium, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten stocks stand out in contrast to the last few months of corrective moves in gold and silver stocks.
Crude Oil and Energy Volatility: Assessing the structural damage to the oil markets, the reality of depleted strategic reserves, and why energy stocks still hold long-term value.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
Shad