Uranium Market Update - Part 11: URA, URNM, UEC, UUUU, EU, URG, UROY, ISOU, DNN, NXE
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (01/04/2026)
We have been way overdue for a uranium market update, so I’m very happy to report that we are going to dig back into the investing opportunities, and provide updates on specific sector fundamentals, for this important commodity. Uranium is the fuel for the next wave of the nuclear renaissance, only there just isn’t enough new supply coming online fast enough to meet the growing demand. In the next couple of years this situation will hit the tipping point, and that means opportunity for those investing in uranium stocks.
Just like the precious metals stole the show in 2025, it seems quite probable that the energy sector will steal the show as 2026 unfolds. It sure did on Jan 2nd, 2026, to kick off the first trading day of the new year.
There are a number commodities that tie into this energy theme from traditional sources like oil and natural gas, to battery metals like lithium, nickel, graphite, and cobalt, to energy transmission metals like copper, silver, and tin, and other critical minerals that play a part like antimony, tungsten, and also a number of the 15-17 rare earth elements.
Of all the energy commodities though, uranium has the most bullish supply / demand imbalance fundamentals and the most positive macroeconomic tailwinds. As a result, the bullish setup in the uranium equities are still quite compelling as we speculate on potential outperformance coming into 2026.
To be clear, I’m still all bulled up on the precious metals sector. As mentioned in the prior article, out of my 55 portfolio positions, 35 of them are still in gold and silver equities. We’ve talked a LOT lately about gold, silver, and the PM equities…
The next biggest commodity category weighted in the portfolio would be in the uranium equities, (of which I currently hold 8 U-stocks).
The remaining dozen positions are in a mix of base metals, critical minerals, and oil/gas stocks. Those stocks tie into the energy sector directly, or indirectly through the energy transition and/or energy storage themes.
It is important to regularly revisit any investing thesis. As we’ve stated in this channel many times, even as bullish as I am on the precious metals gold, silver, platinum, and palladium… and as solid of supply/demand fundamentals as there are for copper over the next few years… I’m still not aware of any commodity that has a more bullish fundamental supply/demand picture and more potential growth on tap than uranium to fuel global nuclear power expansion.
So, let’s get into it…
Throughout 2025, and into 2026 the narrative coming from the broader marketplace and financial media seems to have lost the plot, with regards to the current nuclear power realities and the present investing thesis that matters.
Most commentators and generalist investors that have been participating in the sector (or just commenting on it from afar), have been doing so by latching on with both hands to the buzzing thematics on the energy requirements around the A.I. datacenter boom and buildout. There is the pervasive notion and market tunnel-vision that this is the only reason for the price rise seen in spot or term uranium prices, or uranium stocks. That is simply poppycock and ignores the primary investing thesis and what has been developing for many years now in this sector.
Sure, the energy consumption requirements for the buildout of these hyper-scaler centers for artificial intelligence and quantum computing is a very nice kicker for 5-10 years down the road… [The exception for demand that matters this cycle comes from those tech companies that are purchasing power directly from utility companies utilizing traditional nuclear reactors… that are already built.]
The growth of Small Modular Reactor (SMR) businesses, are a ‘next cycle’ phenomenon, and not a ‘this cycle’ demand driver, despite all those headlines.
This ongoing current cycle has always been about the escalating supply/demand imbalances at present for fueling the existing global fleet of 438 traditional nuclear reactors, and the initial fuel loading of the coming 72 fission reactors currently under construction.
There are 438 operating reactors, 72 reactors under construction, 119 reactors planned, 318 reactors proposed, according to the World Nuclear Organization.
Somehow this primary investment thesis in this sector, of there not being enough mined uranium supply to feed the current and growing global reactor fleet, has been totally lost throughout the A.I hype of 2025.
It is for these reasons that we discussed how ridiculous it was for the uranium mining sector to have been torpedoed in late January of last year, simply on the back of the Deepseek news threatening the domestic A.I. sector. Even if that were true, it is not really relevant to uranium stocks in 2025-2030… but good luck explaining that to the Wall Street gang and the momo traders.
Even if not one solitary A.I. datacenter gets built, that plans to utilize nuclear power, there are ALREADY huge supply/demand imbalances in the market that will underpin higher spot and term U308 prices for many years to come.
I continue to see a flurry of comments in articles, and hear them in interviews on the mainstream financial media, all wondering what the fate of uranium stocks will be if we see a correction in Artificial Intelligence stocks in 2026. Huh?
If the A.I. stock bubble does pop in 2026: Does that really have anything to do with uranium companies working to secure longer-term off-take agreements with utility companies to fuel the existing global network of large traditional nuclear reactors? Not really… Still that narrative is so pervasive that a shock to A.I. may temporarily affect this sector until the slow and steady real supply/demand factors take the helm once again.
For example, read over this complete gibberish from the media buffoon Cramer, when someone asked about one of our portfolio stocks (UEC) - a domestic producer of uranium and holder of the largest inventory of domestic uranium reserves, also with key projects and reserves in the Athabasca Basin of Canada.
Uranium Energy Corp. (NYSE:UEC) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer was recently asked about. During the lightning round, a caller asked about the stock, and here’s what Mad Money’s host had to say in response:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-cramer-uranium-energy-don-044443188.html
“No… We had that. We had that. We had that…. I mean, I gotta tell you, GE Vernova was very enlightening. Don’t buy these uranium companies. We’re like done, okay, they’re up too much. We’re not… going to be like shoveling new uraniums. These are not like coal plants. They’re not like forest fires. These are nuclear power plants. They take forever to build. There will be one that’s going to open in 2028. But these ones that need this, I’m talking about 2035. We’re not playing this game.”
“We’re not… going to be like shoveling new uraniums. These are not like coal plants. They’re not like forest fires.” (Jim, what the hell are you even talking about?)
Cramer’s comments are totally disconnected from the actual fundamental drivers that will cause domestic and foreign utility companies to set up off-take contracts at higher prices with uranium companies. He doesn’t seem to understand the supply deficit that is building over the next few years due to the lack of new mine supply to fill the gap. As a result, utilities will eventually have the revelation that the companies spending huge amounts of money to pull the uranium out of the ground are not going to part with their pounds until they get downside protection above the cost of production, and upside exposure to rising U308 prices. That’s what actually matters….
He just wanted to make a flippant comment trashing uranium stocks because of how much they’d increased on a percentage basis last year, and is conflating the moves in uranium miners along with moves seen in SMR stocks that don’t have any reactors built yet. By the way, so is the rest of the marketplace. Herein lies the issue — Most generalists have no real grasp on the actual investing thesis in the first place for uranium stocks, or the nuances around uranium pricing on the spot or term markets, or their contracting partnerships with utility companies.
His comments are also quite myopic looking at only the lack of US reactor builds, but totally missing the point that 72 reactors are currently under construction, and most of those are in China, Russia, India, and many other countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.
Again, the story underpinning rising uranium prices, that we’ve seen ever since late 2016, and especially since 2020, is about growing demand in the face of stalled and insufficient new mine supply; all the way out to 2030. This has nothing to do (yet…) with SMR demand out in 2035 or A.I. datacenters or quantum computing.
Of course, there is also ample demand piling up for the next cycle too, and we aren’t ignoring that coming wave of demand. There truly are many constructive future demand factors, underpinning the reality that this energy sector is going to see growth for several decades, not for just a few more years out into the future.
Yes, the orders keep stacking up from the tech sector, utility companies, and government agencies for the future buildout of Small Modular Reactors; with most SMRs slated to be built and come online towards the beginning of the next decade. This is absolutely an exciting new future growth segment for the sector; but it really isn’t germane for the supply/demand issues facing utility companies and the uranium mining industry in 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030.
There are also 119 traditional large-scale reactors planned. If a big chunk of those reactors begin moving forward into construction in the next couple of years, then they may factor into the coming next cycle.
Then further down the road in future cycles there are still around 318 proposed large traditional reactors. Of course, many of those will not pan out, and even if they do they are still 1-2 decades out.
So, there is absolutely a large pipeline of future demand; but we want to focus on the final phase of the current cycle that we’ll be in for the balance of this decade.
This cycle technically kicked off when the valuation arbitrage between the uranium price and cost-of-production got to ridiculously unsustainable levels about a decade ago in late 2016.
The uranium spot price got down into the mid-$17’s in November of 2016.
The incentive price for new production was about $60 per pound at that time, and now, due to inflation, that price incentive for new production is up in the high $70s.
Remember back in April of 2020 when oil futures traded down to $20 a barrel, and then briefly went down to negative -$40 on the futures markets? Well, a $17-$20 per pound uranium price in late 2016-2017 was one of those kinds of moments in the U308 space.
There were a number of us U308 bulls commenting on various investing forums, that those insane prices were completely divorced from any rationality, and that we would not be witnessing those ever again for the foreseeable future. (and we haven’t)
Personally, I’ve been investing in uranium stocks since late 2010, and I’d never seen anything like what we saw back in late 2016 through late 2017, and yet the moment was still lost on so many resource investors at that time.
Most projections at the time were that term uranium prices needed to go up 3X to 5X to really get the sector moving again; and that is exactly what happened over this cycle…
So back then, it wasn’t a matter of “If?” but simply a matter of “When?” we would see U308 pricing get back up above the cost of production once again (again, at that time the projection was that term pricing need to go north of $60 a pound).
It was crystal clear to anyone that spent more than 5 minutes looking into the uranium supply versus the future demand from a growing global nuclear power fleet that this situation had to resolve through higher uranium prices, and it was only a matter of time. By default that also meant that uranium mining stocks with economic pounds in the ground, that could actually come into production this cycle, would be the most cherished companies.
One may wonder to themselves, if this was so obvious for any thinking person, then why in the world didn’t everyone start accumulating the uranium stocks for the eventual payoff when prices ran higher?
Well, that is what makes a market, and not everyone skates to where the puck is going.
These kinds of irrational disconnects develop in many market segments, and especially in the commodities sector.
I was simply perplexed at time from the shoulder shrugs and total disinterest from the resource investing sector. That’s what gave me the confidence to load up.
Many investors used to mock uranium bulls as totally out of their minds! (Clearly now they don’t mock the epic moves we’ve seen, but instead they’ve switched tactics to stating definitively that the sector they thought was dead, and that they didn’t even participate in, is overvalued. You gotta love it!)
Many people still were not convinced that nuclear power would ever recover from the negative sentiment around nuclear power after the 2011 Fukushima incident. Lots of otherwise intelligent people, and even entire nations of the world (like Germany and Japan) stated emphatically that that age of nuclear power was over and it was going to be phased out of the global energy production mix. (uh… Nope!)
Then for those folks that did understand the math and fundamental realities and bottlenecks around bringing on enough new supply, they just couldn’t mentally or emotionally reconcile the divergence in projected demand and the depressed price of U308 and the low valuations in the mining stocks.
Most ‘forward-looking investors’ still assumed something must be wrong, or that the entire thesis was misguided. I mean… The market is always right… Right?
During the late 2016 – late 2019 period, the old trading adage rang on the air in so many uranium talks: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
There was a gradual creep higher from late 2017 through late 2019, with positive trade setups for fits and starts, but nothing like what we’ve seen from the March 2020 pandemic crash and moving forward. The last handful of years in this decade have seen a definite sea change in the sentiment towards nuclear energy. This attitude shift is not just from commodity investors, but also from environmental lobbyist groups that previously opposed such powerplants, and even substantial policy changes seen in nations all over the globe.
We don’t have the room here in this article to pile on the bevvy of global policies and all the news continuing to build out the demand side of the equation.
We’ve already previously outlined a number of these Biden and Trump initiatives, buried within government bills and the key takeaways from 4 executive orders in the bottom half of [Part 9] in this series:
I’m also not going to rehash all the information previously shared here regarding the continued production shortfalls from Kazatomprom, Cameco, and Paladin, or the huge lead times still in front of the world to get the next batch of development projects held by Denison, NexGen, or Paladin actually producing yellowcake in the cans (which really won’t commence until 2029 at the earliest, but more likely 2030 or 2031). Where does that leave us for the remainder of this decade?
In the prior uranium market update [Part 10] we spent some time unpacking how ALL of the models for new uranium supply that would come online to ‘balance the markets’ have been wrong for many years now, and were far too optimistic.
Now we want to focus on the price action in the actual uranium equities. The pricing can be erratic in these U-stocks, but it encapsulates all the market forces, news, investor sentiment, and momentum that affects our investments in these companies. That is what matters in the here and now…
There are plenty of ETF and company examples that could also be highlighted, but I’m just going to post some charts from uranium stocks that I’ve personally been positioned in over the years and let the price action do the talking.
These charts more than demonstrate the meteoric rise in price action we’ve seen for the last 5 years in uranium equities, (before anyone could spell A.I. or SMRs), and way before the narrative went off the rails last year…
Additionally, the more recent pricing pullbacks, at the tail-end of last year have set up these stocks for a solid 2026… as evidenced by the surge higher on the first day of trading this year just last Friday January 2nd.
For the last 5 years, most substantial pullbacks in these stocks became fantastic buying opportunities. Until that larger major trend changes, then I continue to view dips in the more quality and liquid uranium equities as areas to accumulate new positions and/or to fortify existing positions.
(URA) Global X Uranium ETF – 6-year daily chart
(URA) has been in a solid bull market for many years now, making an 8.7X move from the 2020 low at $6.95 to the most recent 2025 high at $60.51.
(URA) moved up about 3X just in 2025, from the April low of $19.50 to that October high of $60.51.
Pricing in (URA) closed up 7.79% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $46.06.
(URNM) Sprott Funds Uranium Mining ETF – 6-year daily chart:
(URNM) has been in a solid bull market for many years now, making an 10.2X move from the 2020 low at $6.24 to the most recent 2025 high at $63.99.
(URNM) moved up about 2.5X just in 2025, from the April low of $25.76 to that October high of $63.99.
Pricing in (URNM) closed up 10.13% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $60.45.
On the individual uranium equities, note the very strong rallies off the 2020 pandemic crash market reset lows up to their 2021 high prices. Most U-stocks were up over (11X+) or over 1,000%+ during that one year window of time. Since that initial rerating surge, there have a been a couple of other multi-fold rallies from 2023-2024, and then again inside of 2025; with more rallies still to come as pricing is going higher…
(UEC) Uranium Energy Corp – 6-year daily chart
(UEC) has been in a solid bull market for many years now, making an 50.8X move from the 2020 low at $0.35 up to the most recent 2025 high at $17.80.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that I or anyone caught all of that move, but those of us actively trading the uranium stocks caught big chunks of that move over the years, and there have been a series of multi-bagger trade setups to capitalize on.
It’s hard for me to track some of the overall returns, because I layer in and layer out of positions cycling all the way through them every 5-7 trades or so. I can’t see trades prior to 2022 in my current trading platform, due to prior mergers with other platforms, but just with UEC I’ve had 21 trades in this stock in the last 3 years, and probably about that many in the prior 3 years.
Also…. Yes I know for a fact that I was adding to my existing positions in UEC, UUUU, URG, DNN, and NXE in Mar/Apr/May of 2020, during the pandemic crash, capitalizing on those insane price pullbacks.
(UEC) moved up about 4.6X just in 2025, from the April low of $3.85 to that October high of $17.80. This demonstrates how much torque these U-stocks can have. Well, that is until Cramer says: “We had that….We’re not playing this game.”
Pricing in (UEC) closed up 12.24% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $13.11.
(UUUU) Energy Fuels – 6-year daily chart
(UUUU) is unique in that in addition to producing uranium it is also now producing and processing rare earth elements in the USA. The rare earth narrative actually swamped their uranium story in 2025.
We’ve covered this X-factor with Energy Fuels and their ability to produce rare earths as an added kicker a number of times in 2024 and 2025. While some folks scoffed at this idea, or were puzzled by their diversification into REEs, savvy investors saw the writing on the wall and cashed in on the developing trend… and it is still developing.
Those upside trends in both uranium and rare earths prices are not over, but…. of all the uranium stocks, I’ll concede that Energy Fuels did get a bit over its skis relative to their valuation metrics — at least based off current production data. Then again, the market is looking forward to what they could be making down the line as they continue to expand their processing capacity and domestic influence in critical minerals production, processing, and separation. I’m still holding for higher levels.
(UUUU) has been in a solid bull market for many years now, making an 35X move from the 2020 low at $0.78 up to the most recent 2025 high at $27.33.
Again, to be clear, I’m not suggesting that I or anyone caught all of that move, but those of us actively trading the uranium stocks caught big chunks of that move over the years, and there have been a series of multi-bagger trade setups to capitalize on.
With UUUU I’ve had 32 trades in this stock just in the last 3 years, and probably about that many in the prior 3 years.
Also…. Yes I know for a fact that I was adding to my existing positions in UEC, UUUU, URG, DNN, and NXE in Mar/Apr/May of 2020, during the pandemic crash, capitalizing on those insane price pullbacks.
Pricing in (UUUU) closed up 14.72% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $16.68.
(UUUU) moved up about 8.5X just in 2025, from the April low of $3.20 to that October high of $27.33. This stock has serious torque due to the 2-pronged exposure to both domestic uranium and rare earths production. As a result, I find this equity to be a fantastic trading vehicle to capitalize on it’s constant volatility.
{that is not investing advice, and I’m not an investment adviser. I’m simply sharing what I’m doing with my own capital in my portfolio for entertainment purposes}
(EU) enCore Energy – 6-year daily chart:
(EU) has been in a very choppy market compared to the broad uranium sector for many years now, making a blistering 36X move from the 2020 low at $0.15 to the 2021 high at $5.40. To the best of my memory, enCore Energy was the best performing uranium developer in that 2020-2021 run, and really raised a lot of eyebrows during that process.
(EU) had a nice secondary run of 2.8X, from the 2023 low at $1.76 to the the 2024 high of $5.05.
(EU) moved up about 4.1X just in 2025, from the April low of $1.01 to that October high of $4.18.
Pricing in (EU) closed up 9.68% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $2.72.
(URG) UR-Energy – 6-year daily chart:
(URG) has been in a very choppy market compared to the broad uranium sector for many years now, making an initial 8X move from the 2020 low at $0.27 to the 2021 high at $2.15.
(URG) had a nice secondary run of 2.3X, from the 2023 low at $0.85 to the the 2024 high of $2.01.
(URG) moved up about 4.3X just in 2025, from the April low of $0.55 to that October high of $2.35.
Pricing in (URG) closed up 10.07% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $1.53.
John Cash, Chairman and CEO of Ur-Energy Inc. (NYSE American:URG) (TSX:URE), joined me over at the KE Report on November 11th last year, for a comprehensive overview of the Company’s 3 key producing and development-stage uranium assets in south-central Wyoming. We discussed the key work programs on each project, advancing each one to key milestones the balance of this year and into 2026.
We start off reviewing operations and growth plans at the flagship asset for the Company, the operating the Lost Creek in situ recovery uranium facility. They have produced and packaged approximately 3 million pounds of U3O8 from Lost Creek since the commencement of operations. Rough guidance for 2025 is 440,000 pounds, with 1.3 million pounds contracted for 2026.
Ur-Energy has begun development and construction activities at their fully-permitted Shirley Basin Project, the Company’s second in situ recovery uranium facility in Wyoming. Construction of the foundation for the processing building began in early August and they have poured nearly 900 of the required 1,100 total cubic yards of concrete. The internal foundation of the processing building is substantially complete. 11 ion exchange columns were delivered in September, and two have been placed on the internal foundation. Shirley Basin’s professional and operational teams are fully staffed, and wellfield and plant development remain on track for uranium production startup in Q1 2026.
John and I also briefly discussed their 3rd advanced exploration Lost Solider Project, located less than 10 miles northeast of the Lost Creek ISR Mine. Recent work at Lost Soldier included the installation of 18 aquifer test wells designed to enhance the understanding of the local hydrogeology. John explained that the geology of the project area is well understood and supported by data from more than 4,000 historical drill-holes, but that this additional hydrogeologic characterization will assist their technical teams in optimizing potential future mine planning, permitting, and development activities.
Due to the proximity of their operating Lost Creek ISR facility, Lost Soldier has the potential to be developed as a satellite operation. If exploration work is successful, they will evaluate the potential to advance Lost Soldier through the FAST-41 permitting process, a federal framework designed to streamline and improve coordination among agencies for large-scale infrastructure and energy projects.
We wrapped up discussing the experience of the management team and board of directors, the strong financial strength of the Company, and the number of key institutional stakeholders. Ur-Energy is positioned to capitalize on the resurgence of both the U.S. and global nuclear power industry, illustrated by the recently announced U.S. government’s $80 billion investment to build new nuclear reactors in the United States.
(UROY) Uranium Royalty Corp – 6-year daily chart:
(UROY) has been in a very choppy market for many years now, making an initial 10.5X move from the 2020 low at $0.56 to the 2021 high at $5.95.
(UROY) had a nice secondary run of ~2X, from the 2023 low at $1.81 to the the 2024 high of $3.76.
(UROY) moved up about 3.75X just in 2025, from the April low of $1.43 to that October high of $5.37.
Pricing in (UROY) closed up 9.6% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $3.88.
(ISOU) IsoEnergy Ltd – 6-year daily chart:
(ISOU) has been in a very choppy market for many years now, making an initial eye-watterning 34X move from the 2020 low at $0.61 to the 2021 high at $21.01.
(ISOU) had a nice secondary run of ~2X, from the 2022 low at $9.16 to the the 2022 high of $18.26. It also had a ~2.36X run from the 2023 low at $6.78 up to the 2024 high at $16.04.
(ISOU) moved up about 2.54X just in 2025, from the April low of $4.52 to that October high of $11.50.
Pricing in (ISOU) closed up 10.77% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $10.08.
* (ISOU) is a newer position for me, having just finally picked up shares on Nov 28th and Dec 26th last year for an average cost basis of $8.88 (cosmic). I’m up about 13.5% in about a month’s time, and plan to add 2 or 3 more tranches over time.
(DNN) Denison Mines – 6-year daily chart:
(DNN) has been in a gradual uptrend for many years now, making an initial 11.2X move from the 2020 low at $0.19 to the 2021 high at $2.14.
(DNN) had a nice secondary run of ~2.7X, from the 2023 low at $0.92 up to the 2024 high at $2.47.
(DNN) moved up about ~3.17X just in 2025, from the April low of $1.08 to that October high of $3.42.
Pricing in (DNN) closed up 13.91% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at $3.03.
(NXE) NexGen Energy – 6-year daily chart:
(NXE) has been in a gradual uptrend for many years now, making an initial 13X move from the 2020 low at $0.50 to the 2021 high at $6.50.
(NXE) had a nice secondary run of ~2.57X, from the 2023 low at $3.49 up to the 2024 high at $8.96.
(NXE) moved up about ~2.54X just in 2025, from the April low of $3.91 to that October high of $9.95.
Pricing in (NXE) closed up 11.41% on the first trading day of 2026, to close last week at an all-time weekly high at $10.25. New ATHs are always significant.
(NXE) has made a 20.5X move from the 2020 low at $0.50 to Friday’s close at $10.25. That’s quite impressive… but Arrow is the best undeveloped uranium deposit held by a Canadian junior. They also are hitting big with the drill bit lately and may actually be onto another monster deposit, so this pricing action tracks…
Readers here may realize that I’m not really in an any earlier-stage uranium explorers at the present moment. I was actually in a couple over the last few years, but sold out of all of them when I realized that they just weren’t getting valued appropriately for all the hard work that goes into exploring for and delineating uranium deposits.
In future uranium updates I’ll review a few stories that appear to have merit, and will likely get positioned in 2-3 uranium explorers over the course of 2026. So, stay tuned for more tantalizing trade ideas…
Thanks for reading, and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
Shad