This Precious Metals Bull Market Is In Melt-Up Mode
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (08-30-2025)
There is a backlog of resource company write ups, thoughts on the uranium and copper and oil/nat gas sectors, and even some one-off investing topics that I’d like to publish. However, it is impossible for me to ignore what we saw happen to end this week, and month of August, in the precious metals sector. This precious metals bull market is, and has been, in melt-up mode.
So, let’s get into it…
Gold futures daily chart:
Gold futures closed Friday August 29th at $3,516.10, which is an all-time high close on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Let that sink in for a moment…
This fact means that gold also just pierced up through and importantly closed above the prior ATH at $3,509 hit in late April 2025. (yes there was an intraday high of $3,534 tagged on August 7th, but it closed that day at $3,488). Now gold has officially melted up out of its consolidation through time and sideways pricing channel from the last 4 months in a bullish fashion. Will this level stick?
We need to see some follow-through pricing momentum to the upside in the days and weeks to come. On the chart it sure looks like another breakout is underway out of this most recent consolidation range.
This is uncharted territory. The move higher over the last few years in the gold price has given long suffering gold bugs a sense of vindication; seeing the sector thesis play out. The monetary metal did revalue higher as the purchasing power of the US dollar and all other fiat currencies have continued to plummet. This makes sense…
However, we should take this all with slight note of caution, with regards to the health of the global economy. We now find ourselves breathing in this rarified air in the gold price in the backdrop where there is a faux sense of complacency in the general public with general stock indexes also rocketing to new highs.
How long can all this continue to play out? Nobody knows… but there will be a TIPPING POINT. No trend lasts forever, and we may be entering the blow-off top portion of the “everything bubble.”
Silver futures daily chart:
Silver closed Friday at $40.72, which is a new 52-week high, and the highest weekly and monthly close since 2011. Also let that sink in for a moment…
Where silver closed the last trading session to end this week/month of August is quite significant, and it also ran over some of the short-side traders. (no tears shed…)
This gives us a gold:silver ratio of 86.34, which is still a higher reading than the median level around 50-70. This ratio has even dipped as low as 16 at some historical points in the past. If silver keeps playing catchup to the continued move higher in gold, then silver prices could punch much higher than many expect.
Silver will first need to break through the $42 resistance level, and then the big lateral pricing resistance at the $49-$50 level, from the prior peaks set back in 1980 and 2011.
As an investor in silver equities, I would be quite happy to see silver camp out in the high $30s and low $40s for a while, without going parabolic. This would give producers of meaningful amounts of silver a chance to monetize their production and increase their margins in significant ways and allow for their revaluations higher. It would also give silver juniors, with compelling development projects, the opportunity to rerate higher as their economics will also melt up in this current spot price environment.
The BPGDM Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index is still up at lofty levels, as a breadth and strength indicator.
As highlighted in the prior article the ($BPGDM) tagged 100 two weeks ago, which is the highest percentage level it can attain.
We saw that 100% bullish level tagged in both the summers of 2016, and 2020, and they preceded, by about a month or two, multi-year bearish corrections, within the larger secular PM bull market. It is thus reasonable to again be on high alert, when we are seeing the same thing play out again in this summer of 2025.
The ($BPGDM) has moderated some over the last week though, and came down to a reading of 96.43 on Friday. That is still a pretty elevated level, but again, this doesn’t mean that gold stocks can’t keep blasting higher in spite of it for a while. All it means is that the market breadth of gold producers is still overwhelmingly bullish and that in itself is an early bell ringing.
I will confess to being a bit concerned about just how well things have been going in the commodities sector overall this year. So many investors have communicated to me that they are up in a substantial way in their trading accounts, and that is so nice to hear after a number of rough years in the sector. However, it does start making me a bit uncomfortable when the majority of investors are thrilled and having an outsized year to the upside though…
Even my rather diversified portfolio with dozens of gold, silver, royalties, uranium, copper, strategic minerals, and oil/gas stocks has been 100% in the green for the last few months (I’m talking every position has been in the money by either double digits or triple digits). I’ve never seen an environment like this before after investing in resource stocks for the last 15 years!
I don’t share that to impress you, but rather to impress upon you that something unique is playing out in the commodities space at present. There is a cross-commodity rally going on in tandem - be it gold, silver, copper, platinum/palladium, uranium, lithium, rare earths, antimony, tungsten, etc… Many resource stock investors are more encouraged than I’ve witnessed in a long time, and it does seem like this has been a haymaker year for many investors; which is really fantastic.
This confirms to me that we are in a reflationary trade in the commodities sector, almost across-the-board. I’m cognizant that some individual early-stage pre-discovery juniors, may not yet be reflecting that in some peoples portfolios. However, that is likely still coming, as investors’ capital works it’s way down the risk curve… so just be patient (unless there is an obvious flaw with the fundamentals, financials, or structure of a given junior company).
In talking with a number of other investors, they are in the same boat, where their accounts are up either high double-digits or many are also up solidly in triple-digits, just so far in 2025. Sentiment is up. Everything is funny when you’re making money.
Even sectors that were left for dead in the metals space like platinum, palladium, and lithium have been rallying bigly this year.
Really the only commodities sectors that have remained in the penalty box have been nickel, oil, & nat gas. With regards to the energy stocks, for those using technical analysis for entries and exits, there have still been opportunities in those to turn a profit.
Personally, I’ve not yet taken meaningful evasive action in my own portfolio; despite it being up 146% year-to-date in 2025, and up 27% just in the last month; as of Friday’s close on 08-29-2025. To be clear, again, that is not meant to be taken as boasting, but rather this is simply me reporting on the actual constructive movement that is happening in my account, backstopping the ideas being shared on this channel. In sharing real world results, it should also at least illustrate and accent the larger point of what the sector trends are doing overall in many traders portfolios.
I also share this with readers here to dismantle the argument some talking heads often make that you can only hold a handful of stocks or some arbitrary round number they pick like 10 or 20 stocks as the “ideal” amount of stocks to outperform (just because they say it is so). Clearly that is not so, and this is a concept paraded around as “true” that’s bothered me for a long time, because it isn’t so.
I will concede that a concentrated portfolio obviously has the opportunity where it could outperform a more diversified portfolio, if all one’s concentrated bets are correct. To this very point, I know some traders that shared with me that they are up 200%-300% this year, but that comes with an added layer of risk in limiting down their number of overall positions. Good on them though, as I’m very happy to hear that others are making some cheddar in these markets.
Of course, the converse can also be true, and if some of the concentrated positions are poorly chosen or something fundamentally, or unforeseen market forces hit a certain holding, then it can likewise have a disproportionate effect to the downside.
Sector ETFs like GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ often have 40+, 60+, or even 80+ positions. Most PM pundits have no problem recommending to others that they could position partially or completely in those vehicles for sector exposure; but then they’ll scoff at a portfolio of a 3-5 dozen stocks as “too many stocks” in the same breath. (?)
I’m a big fan of the concept #BuildYourOwnETF - with better stocks, better weightings, active portfolio management, and better returns; and have outperformed the cookie-cutter ETFs for many years.
Having said that… In talking with other investors over the last 1.5 decades in the sector, there are a lot of casual participants that do have “too many stocks,” in the sense that they don’t really understand what they own, why they own it, what objective it achieves in their portfolio, and why they have it weighted as they do. Every stock in a portfolio should have a thesis for why it’s there.
I am not suggesting to become a “turd collector” or just to have a lot of positions just for the sake of diversification. There is a lot of nuance to portfolio construction, and the rationale to add or subtract or change the weight of any position.
For those investors that want to do the homework, and have the time to invest in learning any given sector; they can then be more nimble in their portfolio management and give better weighting to higher-torque stocks.
Position sizing is definitely a 2-way street, and we’ll likely flush out this concept more in a future article to dispel a number of sector narratives or “supposed” truisms.
My only action this last week was to trim back a handful of gold positions that were already up triple digit percentages by about 5%-10% each; just to raise a little bit more dry powder in my trading account. For context there are 24 portfolio positions up triple digit percentage gains. This illustrates the point that: NO, this bull market did not “just get started” or that type of portfolio scenario could not have had the time to develop.
The cash component for trading in my account is roughly at 6%, which I consider a bit too low. It used to be a larger percentage, but it’s shrinking as the account value ratchets higher in percentage terms. Over the next few weeks, I’ll likely lighten up on a few other positions just to get that cash component up to around 10%. That “dry powder” will then be there to pounce on any future sector or specific equity pullbacks.
Overall though, I’m just holding steady and enjoying this sector melt up, at least for now… {That’s not investment advice… I’m just sharing what I’m doing with my own money in my own portfolio for entertainment purposes.}
👉 As an aside: I find that if I’m getting a bit anxious about the direction of a whole sector, (be it gold, silver, copper, uranium, oil & gas, etc…), that it is helpful to engage in “micro-trading.” Micro-trading gives one’s mind the payoff of “taking action” without really doing much from a big picture standpoint. So during this last week where we saw the PM sector keep melting up, it felt good to ring the register on tiny percentage trades in a small handful of portfolio positions; while on balance no meaningful changes were made to the overall larger portfolio weighting and focus. I sometimes refer to this as “pruning the hedges” or “trimming the trees.”
The senior gold producers in the (GDX) continue to stretch higher.
The GDX is up almost 300% (3X) just in the last 3 years, since putting in the Intermediate low at $21.52 back in September of 2022 up to Friday’s close at $63.17. This is bullish chart action any way one slices it.
Friday’s close was a new 52-week daily, weekly, and monthly high in the GDX. This is also very bullish price action and any of those are significant pricing achievements individually. To see them happen across multiple timeframe charts is even more significant.
As mentioned in prior articles, the PM bull market really has hit its acceleration phase in this bull market thus far in 2025. This is causing some punters to proclaim that “The bull market is just getting started…” We won’t get into that nonsense as we’ve discussed how that is patently false numerous times in prior articles, for anyone with a set of eyeballs.
The next overhead resistance for GDX will be at the lateral price level of $66.98, the prior peak from back in 2011.
· The GDX has gone up over 500% (5X) since putting in its Major Low at $12.40 back in January of 2016, and closing up on Friday at $63.17 during this 9-year bull market.
· What is confounding (and even alarming) is that, at record producer margins for the last 2 years and at a $3,516 gold price, the GDX at $63.17 is still below the 2011 all-time high of $66.98 when gold made it up to $1,923.
· One would have expected to see a triple digit handle on the GDX at this point… and there a plenty of sector boogeymen that people point to for explaining away this underperformance in this bull cycle (share dilution, market manipulation, cryptos stealing eyeballs, lack of interest from retail investors due to surging general equities, etc…), but… it is what it is. We can only trade the charts and the pricing as it comes.
· Even when/if GDX does finally eclipse $67, it will seem a bit lackluster in this larger context, but… better late than never. Regardless, brace yourselves for a new wave of pundit proclamations that “The bull market is just getting started,” once again, if we see that play out on the GDX chart in the weeks or months to come.
The (GDXJ) has been melting up as well.
The GDXJ has nearly doubled year-to-date. It put in its recent low in December of 2024 at $41.85 and closed on Friday at $80.05. That is bullish indeed.
Let’s put the short-term move in GDXJ into longer-term context:
GDXJ has a fascinating chart in that it ended its bear market before gold or the GDX or the silver stocks, putting in its Major Low back in late 2015. That is not like most of the other precious metals charts, but may be a reflection of the portfolio construction within that ETF and how those positions were weighted at that time.
The GDXJ is up 446% in this bull market, since that Major Low at $17.92 to where it closed on Friday at $80.05. Thus far, the mid-tiers have actually underperformed the majors - GDX is up over 5X in this PM bull market.
Considering gold is up 336% thus far in this PM bull market, since its Major Low of $1045 to the recent ATH at $3,516; most people (me included) would have expected GDXJ to not only do much better than GDX, but also to have eclipsed its prior ATH already.
The prior all-time high in GDXJ was $179.44. So, it would need to more than double from its close this last week at $80.05, just to take out that prior peak.
The mid-tier gold producers have been in a bullish trend from a big picture perspective, but they still have a lot of catching up to do to get anywhere close to the valuations of the prior cycle. That is important context for PM stock investors to consider, because most of the juniors have evern underperformed the mid-tiers thus far; implying that they still have the most catchup to do as a subsector.
Senior silver producers in the ETF (SIL) have surged higher.
SIL is up 86% from its December low of $31.32 through the close on Friday to a new 52-week high on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts of $58.10. That is undeniable bullish pricing action on the chart.
SIL has underperformed both GDX and GDXJ over the same time period; so the silver seniors have underperformed the gold seniors as an overall takeaway. When the PM bull market is nearing its later stages, we’ll see the reverse where silver stocks outperform the gold stocks.
Let’s put this short-duration move in (SIL) into longer-term context.
SIL is up 388% from its 2016 Major Low of $14.94 up to the close this last Friday at $58.10.
That’s a solid move higher, but pales in comparison to GDX’s move up over 500% during the same time period. This data highlights that silver seniors have lagged behind the moves higher in the gold seniors during this PM bull market.
Importantly; SIL’s close at $58.10 on the daily/weekly/monthly charts has now definitively broken above the prior 2016 peak at $54.34, and the 2020 peak at $52.87. That is a bullish breakout on the chart and worth noting.
SIL would still need to almost double to get up to the 2011 ATH peak at $94.02, back from when Silver ran to $50. Will silver moving from $40-$50 be enough?
Finally, let’s look at the chart of the mid-tier and smaller silver producers and largest silver juniors held inside of the (SILJ) ETF
The SILJ chart may be the most interesting and curious of them all, and paints a much different picture than the charts of Gold, GDX, GDXJ, Silver, or SIL.
Keep in mind that the (SILJ) didn’t exist at the end of the prior bull market cycle in 2010-2011, and it wasn’t even birthed until November of 2012.
It’s high water mark from early 2013 peaked right below $22. The silver mid-tiers and juniors held inside the (SIL) still have some serious work to do to get up above that level based on Friday’s close at $18.18.
SILJ may actually be the only widely-followed PM chart that has pricing evidence that matches the prevailing PM narrative that many investors have (especially when they’ve only been positioned in the junior mining stocks for these many years)… You know the tired narrative that says we’ve only had 2 short-lived rallies in the PM sector over the last decade: (a) the first 8 months of 2016 and (b) the 6-month post-pandemic rally of 2020; coupled with the narrative that next wave of the bull market didn’t start until March of 2024.
On the SILJ chart, THAT IS the takeaway one would get, but unfortunately that narrative then gets smeared across the entire PM sector. Junior mining stock investors love to paint the whole sector with that same junior perspective brush, but they live inside an echo-chamber of other suffering junior mining stock investors. Misery loves company…
The harsh reality is that the vast majority of capital that comes into the precious metals complex is positioned in either gold, silver, and then the senior and mid-tier gold producers and royalty companies, and maybe some funds trickle into the senior silver producers. Junior PM stock investors are always at the fringe, marching to the beat of a very different drum, and thus they experience a totally different journey than the rest of the sector.
The issue any serious researcher into the PM sector has when reviewing the charts over the last decade, is that the pricing action in the silver juniors (or microcap gold juniors for that matter) just doesn’t match the experience or chart-based evidence of either gold or silver, or that of the senior or mid-tier gold stocks or ETFs, or that of the PM royalty and streaming companies, or that of the senior silver stock ETFs. They really are traveling in different worlds in a sense…
Having said of all that, I totally get why junior PM stock investors have the perspectives that they do, and empathize with the sour sentiment that emerged from brutal bear market periods and the short-lived go-go months in 2016 and 2020, and since the spring of 2024.
This is not an easy sector to invest in, and it is quite volatile; with gut wrenching corrective moves that trick investors into thinking the bull is over, followed by eye-popping rallies that catch most of the herd out of position as the bull charges on — shaking the most riders off his back as possible for max pain. Those conditions are what allow for inefficient markets to create conditions of massive underperformance followed by massive outperformance.
We run a podcast show over at the KE Report www.kereport.com that looks at all markets, but specializes in interviewing many of the junior resource companies. After 5 years of speaking with the senior officers of junior PM companies on a daily basis, I can confirm that the mood and select historical recall of most management teams in junior PM mining stocks definitely mirrors that chart above of the SILJ. Again, SILJ just doesn’t match that of the broader PM sector overall.
It should also be said that there is A LOT of variability amongst commodities, and so oil and gas, or uranium, or lithium, or copper companies have been on a totally different trajectory the last handful of years than junior gold or silver stocks. Of course, when we speak to those pundits and those company management teams they have a much different take on this evolving commodities cycle, along with what they perceive were bullish versus bearish years, according to the market trends in their respective commodities.
All of these points highlight precisely why it is wise to be diversified across different commodities, and different staged companies within each commodity. There is always a bull market somewhere…
Most PM investors, and the vast majority of generalist investors that do dip their toes into this sector are actually piled into the precious metals themselves (either physically or digitally through ETFS) or they’ll position in the revenue-generating producers and royalty companies. It is therefore an odd quirk and irony that most of the PM conferences cater to the Vancouver-based or Toronto-based paper pushing junior pre-revenue developers, explorers, and prospect generators.
Please don’t misunderstand me: I love investing in the junior side of the business, and attend plenty of conferences each year cram-packed with booths of junior mining stocks. In fact, I’m getting ready to head to the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek in just 2 weeks. It’s just that the vast majority of attendees and the well known pundits are so focused on the juniors that they have an underlying narrative that is running based on the SILJ chart, versus the charts of gold, silver, GDX, GDXJ, or SIL. In this channel, we still aim to review bigger picture themes and separate the signal from the noise.
Well, that wraps us up for this week’s review of the broader PM sector, and I promise we’ll get into some of those torqued up individual junior stock write ups, as well as get an update on both the copper and uranium in the near-term. Stay tuned for more tantalizing trade ideas.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
· Shad