Q3 Bounce In Precious Metals Prices and Sector Sentiment
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (07-02-2026)
The US markets just closed up a pivotal shortened trading week in the precious metals sector (with markets closed on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday; because the USA turns 250 years old on Saturday, July 4th).
The market pivoted from June to July, and from Q2 to Q3, but also H1 to H2.
This was an interesting week of book-squaring to close out the 2nd quarter, and new positions coming into the 3rd quarter.
Additionally, some financial institutions have a fiscal year that begins at the midway point of the year, and they may have done some portfolio shuffling as well.
For precious metals investors, they saw gold make the lowest lows of the year on Tuesday June 30th,at $3,955.40, and then have a solid bounce out of the danger zone below $4,000 to back above that round psychological number to end Thursday July 2nd at $4,125.70.
It didn’t take much to give a little lift to the spirits of PM investors, and this 2-day bounce to kick off the 3rd quarter was the first spark, before a weekend full of sparklers and fireworks. “Goodbye Q2, and Hello Q3!”
So, let’s get into it…
Gold Futures - Year-to-date daily chart:
Friday’s session (because gold is still trading overseas) saw the yellow monetary metal briefly breach up over $4,200, and it is still up close to that at the time of this writing.
It is still bearish that gold made another ‘lower low’ at $3955.40, but it is also nice to see pricing pop up above $4,000, and clear some of the very recent lateral price resistance (like the prior low of $4,046.20 from June 11th).
I wouldn’t say gold is in a bullish posture at this point, because it is still below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) {currently at $4,353.30}. That’s the first key resistance level that gold bulls will want to see futures pricing clear.
The next lateral price resistance for gold, after the 200-day EMA, is the most recent peak at $4,403.60 tagged on June 17th (on the first attempt to clear the 200-day EMA after decisively losing this level in early June).
So, a daily close above $4,403.60 clears both levels of overhead resistance, and would put gold back into a more bullish posture technically.
As a reminder, gold futures opened the year on January 2nd at $4,340, so a daily close above there also would move gold into a “positive-on-the-year” position, which would also be quite constructive.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Year-to-date daily chart
(GDX) closed this week at $78.43, still bearishly below the 50-day, 144-day, and 200-day EMAs.
Pricing in (GDX) also went up and tagged the 144-day and 50-day EMAs two weeks ago, but was rejected back lower again by overhead resistance.
Gold mining equity bulls will want to see pricing regain all those key moving averages in the very near future, because the 50-day EMA is getting very close to making a ‘death cross’ down through the 200-day EMA. This would be a lagging confirmation of the bearish trend, but could also portend to even more selling pressure as algos pick up on that signal.
(GDX) could have potentially just put in a triple-bottom around the $73.63-$73.89 level. (I’m not a big fan of triple tops or bottoms… but there it is for now…).
We’ll need more pricing data to see if this new support level holds in the days and weeks to come.
Until the pattern that began at the end of February changes, where (GDX) tagged $117.18 and then started putting in a series of ‘lower highs’ and ‘lower lows’ is reversed; then gold stocks remain in a short-term bear market.
We haven’t seen new ‘lower lows,’ because things have actually held steady at those 3 troughs in the high-$73s. That is the first encouraging thing we’ve been able to say for a while in (GDX), and so we’ll see if that new support level can hold.
Silver Futures - Year-to-date daily chart:
Friday’s session (because silver is still trading overseas) saw the hybrid (precious/industrial) metal briefly breach up over $63, and it is still up close to that at the time of this writing.
It is still bearish that silver made another ‘lower low’ at $55.695, but it is also nice to see pricing pop up above $62, and clear some of the very recent lateral price resistance (like the prior low of $61.59 from June 11th).
I wouldn’t say silver is in a bullish posture at this point, because it is still below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) {currently at $71.458}. That’s the first key resistance level that silver bulls will want to see futures pricing clear.
The next lateral price resistance for gold, after the 200-day EMA, is the most recent peak at $71.65 tagged on June 17th.
So, a daily close above $71.66 clears both levels of overhead resistance, and would put silver back into a more bullish posture technically.
As a reminder, silver futures opened the year on January 2nd at $71.50, so a daily close above there also would move silver into a “positive-on-the-year” position, which would also be quite constructive.
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) - Year-to-date daily chart
(SIL) closed this week at $80.20, still bearishly below the 50-day, 144-day, and 200-day EMAs.
Pricing in (SIL) also went up and tagged the 144-day and 50-day EMAs two weeks ago, but was rejected back lower again by overhead resistance.
Silver mining equity bulls will want to see pricing regain all those key moving averages in the very near future, because the 50-day EMA is getting very close to making a ‘death cross’ down through the 200-day EMA. This would be a lagging confirmation of the bearish trend, but could also portend to even more selling pressure as algos pick up on that signal.
(SIL) could have potentially just put in a double-bottom around the $74.09-$74.46 level.
We’ll need more pricing data to see if this new support level holds in the days and weeks to come.
Until the pattern that began at the end of January changes, where (SIL) tagged $119.24 and then started putting in a series of ‘lower highs’ and ‘lower lows’ is reversed; then silver stocks remain in a short-term bear market.
We haven’t seen new ‘lower lows’ because things have actually held steady at those 2 troughs in the low-$74s. That is the first encouraging thing we’ve been able to say for a while in (SIL), and so we’ll see if that new support level can hold.
To be clear, the charts for Gold, GDX, Silver, or SIL don’t look ragingly bullish at this point, and those charts still have the burden of proof on the bulls to substantiate the uptrend and take out some overhead resistance levels. Regardless, that didn’t stop sentiment from getting a bit more bullish at the first signals of a bounce to start Q3.
One thing I noticed this week was how sector sentiment (which always follows price) seemed to go from peak pessimism earlier in the week to close up Q2, and then to the first initial optimism in a while as the calendar page flipped over into Q3.
Below are 3 compelling KE Report conversations from the last 2 days to kick off the 3rd quarter, with some very sharp sector analysts and friends of the show. I believe these conversations are worth reviewing and wanted to share them with readers here.
Robert Sinn, (aka Goldfinger on CEO.ca and CeoTechnican on X) and publisher of Goldfinger Capital on YouTube and Substack, joins me for another wide-ranging discussion on his technical outlook, fundamental factors that matter, and portfolio management strategies in this current setup in gold, silver, and precious metals stocks heading into Q3.
Robert Sinn –Technical and Fundamental Setup In Gold, Silver, and Precious Metals Stocks Heading Into Q3
We start off reviewing the bearish technical action on the charts from the Q1 peaks in January and February to the support breaking to lower prices in Q2 through the end of June.
Q2 had a very ugly bullish engulfing quarterly candle, which he just wrote about on Substack, but he also cautioned people that it doesn’t mean things are just going to go straight down from here.
Robert points out that selling compounded and Q2 closed up at max pessimism in the sector, and he noted that this is the type of environment where selling can become exhausted and where directional turns can happen.
Additionally, we noted the extreme low readings in sector sentiment, extreme low bullish breadth readings, and the weak seasonality factor, where the summer doldrums seemed to come early this year.
He highlights that turning over the calendar month & quarter can bring in different positioning from institutions, and that in seasonality terms, coming out of US Independence Day long weekends can often set up a more constructive stretch in the PM complex for the next few months.
We addressed the fat margins that producers still had in Q2 and heading into Q3, despite the corrective moves in the metals and higher energy costs for the quarter, and potentially compressing margins some from where they were in Q1.
We also outlined the constructive situation with regards to so many gold and silver explorers and developers being more cashed up than they have been in years, doing some of their largest work programs in years.
We are going to have flood of positive sector news over the next few months that could be the catalysts to bring in more buying interest to the junior PM equities.
Wrapping up we discussed a few portfolio management strategies, where pullbacks in quality companies can be good accumulation points. Robert reiterated that investors should take inventory of what they own and why they own those stocks; shedding situations that are continually not working out, and focusing on their highest conviction stories that they have the best understanding of as their heaviest weightings.
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https://www.youtube.com/@GoldfingerCapital/videos
Steve Penny – Chart Analysis Video – US Dollar, Silver, Gold, GDX, SILJ, SRUUF, URNM
Steve Penny, Founder and Publisher of The SilverChartist Report is back! Steve joins me in a wide-ranging discussion to rapid-fire through a number of monthly and daily charts and key technical analysis takeaways on: The US dollar, Silver, Gold, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ), the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF), and the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM).
We also weave in macroeconomics, fundamental data on the focus commodities sectors, and approaches for using technical analysis to navigate fluctuations in investor sentiment.
Click below to learn more about Steve’s Silver Chartist analysis & community:
https://silverchartist.com/plans
In this Daily Editorial from The KE Report, I sit down with Brien Lundin, Editor of the Gold Newsletter and host of the upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference, to get his outlook on where we are at in the precious metals market, and why he believes the bottoming process is already underway here in the mid-point of the year. We are transitioning from what was a very difficult correction in Q2, towards metals and mining prices that seem to have hit selling exhaustion and are now bouncing up to kick off Q3.
Brien Lundin – Emerging From The PM Market Malaise In Q2, and Looking Ahead To Better Seasonality and Sector News In Q3
While the short-term charts for gold have been under pressure, Brien highlights several under-the-radar shifts that suggest a market transition is underway in the PM complex.
Gold dipped briefly below $4,000 a few times, but didn’t stay there and quickly rebounded back up above that round psychological number each time. The last few days of June and first couple days of July have put some breathing room in between current prices and $4,000.
The Fed policy expectations went a bit too extreme in the hawkish camp, and Brien points out that eventually Kevin Warsh and the Fed will transition back to a more accommodative policy, using their task forces to define new readings on economic datapoint.
The stronger US dollar is not going to be the headwind some may expect, and it is less relevant to the gold or silver price over the medium to longer-term than other macro data and trends.
We are entering an attractive window of seasonality, where often the lows in the PM sector occur between late July and early August and then rally for months into the Fall. While we could see a bit more continued price weakness, he sees that as a great spot to go shopping for companies on people’s watch lists.
The precious metals stocks are going to have a wave of positive news coming in Q3 from robust earnings in the producers, to cashed up exploration programs, resource estimate updates, and economic studies in the juniors.
Brien highlights the following companies as ones that have positive news catalysts on tap that he is keenly interested in following for H2: Prospector Metals Corp. (TSXV: PPP) (OTCQB: PMCOF), K2 Gold Corp (TSXV: KTOV) (OTCQX: KTGDF), Banyan Gold Corp. (TSXV:BYN)(OTCQB:BYAGF), Delta Resources Ltd (TSXV: DLTA) (OTC Pink: DTARF), and Auro Metals Inc. (TSXV: AURO) (OTCPK: AURFF).
Click here to learn more about the Gold Newsletter. – https://goldnewsletter.com/
Click here to learn more about the New Orleans Investment Conference on October 28-31.
I hope folks here enjoyed this brief update on the rising sentiment in gold, gold stocks, silver, and silver stocks; along with some KER interviews with savvy sector thought leaders here at the midpoint of the year. Again, after such a rough low-sentiment Q2, it was quite refreshing, at least thus far, to see a few green shoots to kick off the summer quarter here in Q3.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
Shad
Investment disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.