Precious Metals Update – Silver, SILJ, Gold, GDXJ
Excelsior Prosperity 06-08-2025
It’s time for another update on gold, silver, and the precious metals stocks. We saw pretty good movement in most of the sector last week, but it’s a mixed bag with some elements breaking out, some channeling mostly sideways, and some junior stocks just starting to move off recent troughs, coming out of corrective periods.
We normally kick things off with gold, but for this article we are going to put silver up first, because it was really in “pole position” this last week, and it still is coming into this next week.
The silver future’s price not only closed both Thursday and Friday well above the $35 resistance level, but also closed the week with a $36 handle at $36.139; after tagging an intraday high of $36.50.
That’s the highest weekly silver pricing close since back in 2012!
It is significant that silver put in its highest daily and weekly close in 13 years
Silver breached $35 back in October to close at $35.04 and in March to close at $35.08 (after tagging $35.49 intra-day), but this time there are no bones about it… Silver closed 2 days and also the week well above $35, and $36. The technical objective was achieved for the 3rd time, and held it to end the week.
The next resistance zone in the $37-$38 range is the last one that most technicians have been discussing for the last several years. Once that level is eclipsed, then it brings into focus the all-time highs from 1980 and 2011 in the $49-$50 range. That pricing level is the ultimate line in the sand for silver.
What is really odd is how the silver stocks for the most part sold off hard to end the week in the backdrop of these new reent highs in the underlying silver prices. On Friday most of the silver stocks were in the red and down between -1% to -5%. That’s very counter-intuitive. Looking to the sector ETFs, SIL was down -1.1% and SILJ was down -1.6%, even though silver futures were up near 1% most of the day.
The silver stocks started the week with their biggest surge on Monday, as silver took off out of the $33’s and got into the $34’s. The silver stocks tended to hold onto their gains through middle of the week with silver channeling in the $34’s and edging even a bit higher. That makes sense that we’d see a good response in the equities to silver making a move higher, but again, we saw those exact same prices back in March of this year and it is was like nobody cared… but hey, better late than never right?
Then on Thursday silver retook $35 with authority. While some select silver stocks did blast up a bit higher, it was mostly underwhelming in comparison to the prior move we saw on Monday at lower prices.
Then on Friday silver retook $36 and the silver stocks, for the most part, sold off all day. (Huh?) Which part of that silver futures chart below looks most exciting?
If investors loved $34 being cleared so much on Monday, and seemed encouraged by $35 being held onto through Thursday, then why in the world were investors not bidding up the silver stocks to much higher prices on Friday into $36 prices to end the week? (what a bummer)
So many technicians have been clamouring for silver to break $35 decisively, then it does on Thursday and accelerated the move closing Friday above $36… but then investors sold off the silver stocks into that strength. (that makes no sense)
We are told that the markets are always right, but are they? The silver stocks should have gone up in response, just strictly due to the price appreciation of their product (silver) and technical momentum; but definitely not go down much in price and value. Even if investors don’t believe that silver price is going to stick (and maybe it won’t), it was still up significantly to the end the week.
Did the silver margins not just get way better for silver producers? (yes, they did)
Did the economics not just suddenly expand bigly on silver development projects? (yes, they also did)
Then shouldn’t their valuations have moved up even higher? (logically yes… but they went down instead. Make sense?)
Let’s have a look at SILJ, which is really the best read on the silver equities as a group.
Yes, it was encouraging to see (SILJ) put in the highest daily close in years at $15.21, and a new higher peak on Thursday at $15.53, eclipsing the prior peaks of $15.18 in October, and $15.48 in April of 2022.
However, that enthusiasm needs to be tempered with the fact that (SILJ) closed down lower to end the week on Friday at $14.98, at the exact same time when silver futures were blasting above $36.
Was this just skittish investors taking across-the-board profits on the big runs in the silver equities we saw earlier in the week? Maybe, but then that doesn’t bode well for follow through buying.
Did the algo-trading have in place some kind of program to sell silver stocks that runs counter to the basic logic of expanding margins and economics?
It is stunning that the SILJ couldn’t get above those $17.21 - $18.84 - $18.17 price peaks from summer of 2020 through the summer of 2021. Remember, that $18.84 peak was on February 1st 2021 was in association with the #SilverSqueeze movement because silver had finally got up to just above $30.
Heck, we’ve been up above $30 silver for most of the last year, and it hasn’t seemed to matter much for the silver stocks.
Silver got up above $35 in October of 2024, and SILJ hit a peak at $15.18 which pales in comparison to those 2020 and 2021 peaks.
Earlier this year in March silver got back up above $35 (to even higher levels than in October) and SILJ put in the depressing peak at $12.98. (that makes no logical sense)
Then silver does it for a 3rd time this last week, charging up above $35 again, and SILJ tags a marginally higher level than the prior 2 peaks at $15.53.
However, as previously mentioned, then when silver goes up above $36 on Friday we witness a selloff in SILJ by 1.51% to close at $14.98. (what is going on here?)
🔹 Why in the world is SILJ not way above the #SilverSqueeze peak of $18.84 and solidly above $20+ at these much higher silver prices, better producer margins, and better project economics for the developers? (the reason is because sentiment and momentum buying is still not really there in this sector)
Yes, it is good that we aren’t at a “euphoria” moment, but it is also bad that we’ve seen the underlying precious metals make so much progress, that hasn’t properly translated over into the gold and silver equities revaluing higher. If, like me, you have already been in position in these stocks awaiting this moment, then one would have expected better runs and bigger gains from this setup.
Silver has done far better for over a year now than it ever did back in 2020 or 2021, but the silver stocks haven’t got that commensurate bid like then.
I’ve heard several pundits say: “I hope silver doesn’t skyrocket here as it will signal the late stages of the bull market.” (Huh?) We need to at least see silver get up and break $50 to even come close to keeping up with gold, and that wouldn’t mark the end.
If we are in a strong precious metals bull market, then you absolutely want to see silver surging and outpacing gold. That is good for the whole sector. It needs to start sometime, so let’s get this going in our lifetimes please…
And… Oh by the way…. Most of us have been in positions for a long time patiently waiting for liftoff and value accretion in our stocks. When the underlying metals finally participated, and when margins did start expanding to record levels, then there should have already been a bigger move in most of the gold and silver stocks. The fact that there hasn’t been more upside is what is concerning.
For example, when gold did break out to new all-time highs above the 2020 peak at $2089 to $2,100 and above, then most people assumed that would translate over into the GDX and GDXJ breaking to far higher levels than that prior peak far earlier on, but it actually took $3000+ gold to do it. That is in no way a plus that it took that much price and margin expansion to gain so little.
It would also stand to reason that since the gold producers have had the highest margins ever for the last year, then we should have seen the GDX and GDXJ going to levels far higher than the 2011 peaks, back when gold only got to $1923. We are still nowhere even close to those prior higher levels, even when the gold price is $1450 higher than that prior cycle peak. Record margins matter.
People that are suggesting this has played out really well for the sector, are missing these glaring disconnects happening in the face of record high metals prices and extremes in positive margins. The continued sub-par valuations compared where they historically would have been should be of greater concern, and I sympathize with so many investors that are a bit let down by how this has all played out so far.
Silver stocks surged in Jan/Feb of 2021 because of the prospect of silver prices getting back above $30.
OK, well then wouldn’t $31, $32, $33, $34, $35, and $36 silver prices be even better? (Yes, they should be and are)
Aren’t the economics on ounces in the ground and development projects even better now? (Yes, they are way better, even after considering the higher capex requirements due to inflation)
Again, people saying that they are pleased with how things have gone and don’t want to see silver stocks move too much too early, just don’t get it at all. Those comment come off as totally tone deaf to anyone that has followed this sector for any significant amount of time and can compare this cycle to prior ones. These valuations are really lagging and its not been that pleasing.
Monday night / Tuesday early morning UPDATE:
In Monday’s trading session we saw silver close above $36 for the second trading session in a row, wrapping up the day at $36.795, after spiking up to $37.03 intraday.
It was also nice to see the silver stocks getting a bid and in the green Monday (unlike Friday’s action); but still… it was a rather muted move higher considering $35 resistance has been cleared for yet another day, and $37 was tagged.
Again, based on historical moves in relation to silver, one would expect to see the SILJ up in the $20+ range (way above that early 2021 #SilverSqueeze peak at $18.84 when silver initially got back to $30), and yet it closed at $15.15.
Monday’s $15.15 close in (SILJ), in the face of silver tagging $37, and closing up at $36.79, was also below the recent peak at $15.53 and daily close of $15.21 put in on Thursday with silver in the $35’s.
A casual onlooker may say, what’s the big deal, SILJ was up 1.13% today… However, a more experienced resource trader would point out: Yes, it was nice that the silver stocks were mildly in the green in response, but silver was up 1.82% Monday. In a strong bull market SILJ should leverage the move in the metals but 2:1 or even 3:1. Maybe not everyday, but especially during significant price breakouts.
We should have seen SILJ up 4%-6% on Monday…. not only to leverage the nearly 2% move higher in silver, but also after watching it sell down by 1.5% on Friday when silver was up nearly 1%. SILJ actually had catchup work to do after Friday’s fizzling results, but it underperformed silver once again on another big day in silver price appreciation.
These are the seemingly small, but actually very important distinctions and nuances that aren’t quite adding up to a very bullish response from the silver stocks in the face of the metals price blasting up to new recent highs the last few trading sessions.
This could mean that (a) resource traders don’t expect these higher silver prices to persist, and are anticipating a pullback, or (b) that the sentiment is still not that of a strong PM bull market in momentum.
I sincerely hope we see some follow-through strength in silver and the silver equities for the balance of this week. A really big day in the silver stocks would simply be a catchup move at this point, but a good market signal.
We should have been seeing bigger moves in both the gold and silver stocks based on all the fundamental factors for these companies (and yes even with the backdrop of excessively high US equity market valuations). You aren’t going to see tons of investors rotate into gold and silver juniors from being positioned in Tesla, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, etc…. so that is wishful thinking anyway from the goldbugs. Sure, more generalist investors would seek out this sector if other sectors were in distress, and it would be great to see that decoupling, but it is totally not required.
The prices of gold and silver have performed plenty well enough for big reratings, and the fundamentals for the related equities have improved in substantive ways, for the gold and silver stock ETFs to have broken out to new highs. No way of explaining that away as good for gains a later day will suffice.
Also, what in the hell is wrong with getting the outsized gains in shares surging higher now, when the metals prices are performing as everyone knew they could and would?
I’ve never seen such a sector of delayed gratification sycophants as with the precious metals stock investors. If gold has broken out to new all-time highs over and over and over again, then the stocks should have followed suit and leveraged that 3:1. (sure, in a few isolated cases the very lowest cost producers did, but not most of the sector. In addition, those best-in-class producers should have been moving to new highs ahead of the breakout in gold, discounting that reality in advance from the “forward looking market”). The payoffs should have been bigger since late 2023 to present.
If we were to talk about investors in tech stocks, or crypto mining stocks, or biotech stocks; when they have sector developments, then damn it they let the investing universe know about it, and that’s why their stocks have kept running to new highs.
And by the way, those investors are happy to take those gains in the here and now! Good grief, they aren’t dithering around all day concerned about mapping out the potential length of the coming bull market many years out into the future.
The whole goal is to make money investing, and if that happens suddenly with giant windfalls, then so be it. Most investors are fine compressing the time frames if the upside gains are worth the candle. It’s long overdue at this point.
You can then take those gains made and keep rotating them, because there is always a bull market somewhere.
I’m not saying we should root for a parabolic gain that is over right after it happens either. I’m saying we’ve already had tons of fundamental factors and the right commodities prices for the PM stocks to have already run to record levels and valuations, without it even needing to get frothy or euphoric.
When the underlying gold and silver prices started really running at the end of 2023 through present and the PM stocks didn’t rip up anywhere close to the prior peaks, it should have been met with vocal confusion and highlighted as a centerpiece of undervaluation from the sector leadership.
Instead we’ve had sector apologists just happy to see some green on their screens say “this is a healthy move,” and “we just need some more patience…” Look, we PM investors have been patient for so many years, and there is likely no group of investors that has been more patient. It’s time for the outsized moves…
There have literally been several years now for investors to get into position in the right stocks, and most of the people that actually care about this sector have been well in position for quite some time now. There shouldn’t be many investors on the sidelines still waiting to move funds into position. If the sector rips a great deal higher now to catch up to the moves in the underlying metals, then the group of investors that supported these companies when everyone else turned their backs on it will be the ones reaping the rewards, so let’s bring it on!
It’s not wrong to have anticipated a far better payoff from what we saw playout in the gold price in late 2023 - 2025 over the last year and half.
Some pundits think that it’s good how undervalued this space still is for those generalists that will eventually be lining up to pile into this tiny space. I call B.S. on that line of thinking for the last year and half. We have NOT been better off waiting for delayed gratification at this point, and the valuations are way off from past cycles. I’d rather see generalist chasing prices higher… that’s what they do.
What we have been seeing are missed opportunities for pricing momentum to take the larger field of stocks up to the kinds of values we seen in the past with less compelling metals prices or fundamentals.
The sector is filled with low valuations on ounces in the ground, on the sunk costs from years of prior drilling and development work, and even on producing assets and royalties that deserve reratings much higher to reflect their stellar economics. These undervaluations have persisted for so long in the face of record metals prices and margin/revenue metrics, that they’ve become normalized, and small 20%-50% moves higher get celebrated as healthy, when these moves need to be going up 200%-500% just to get things on par with where the metals prices are. That is in no way a “good thing.”
It makes it difficult to imagine what stew of fundamental forces and what metals prices it will actually take to get GDXJ and SILJ even back to their highs of the last cycle. We already should have already gotten there long ago.
Sure we’ve all seen some nice appreciation in many PM stocks (as some are up multiple-fold over the last year or so), and our portfolios growing to higher levels, but it really should have been much more from a valuation standpoint across a wider breadth of stocks. Look, I am not saying we haven’t had some nice gains, but am pointing out the glaring disconnects in the PM equities in light of the string of fundamental factors we’ve already had.
Many sector pundits have been far too complacent about these low valuations and weave narratives about how it will work out eventually. That, or they do a lot of finger pointing at the excessive US equity market strength, margin contraction, or share dilution (none of which came close to fully explaining the massive selloffs and mispricing of the stocks, but they do make nice soundbites and convenient boogeymen).
Of course, they don’t like when people point out they’ve been shrugging off the converse data points of all-time record high margins for the last year without the corresponding all-time highs in the ETFs or most gold stocks, or that there are so many nuances around the accretive acquisitions or mine builds that those companies accomplished through that equity dilution that transformed them beyond where they were in the past cycle. Companies have more mines up and running, or have merged with other peers or acquired mines or development projects. That dilution created totally different companies and the value creation executed on is not being properly taken into their current market caps.
As another layer of insanity, there is the counter-productive business practice of using $1400-$1800 gold price assumptions on economic studies or project NPVs, instead of looking at the current gold pricing levels channeling around $3,300-$3,400 for months now.
Company management teams think they are being defensive by showcasing how low the metals could go and still be profitable, but everyone already realizes that. They could just as easily include a metals sensitivity table that drops metals price assumptions down that low for demonstration purposes.
Look, we all get it – these are long-life mines that will go a decade or two. Well, at the rate gold prices are going in a decade we’ll be at $5,000 - $10,000 gold.
So again, using $1,600 or $1,800 gold price assumptions when they are actually selling gold at $3000+ is not helping anyone out on modeling their projects or NPV, nor resulting in these companies’ value propositions growing proportionately with the moves in gold.
These companies are just shooting themselves in the foot by not dealing with numbers closer to the realm of the here and now.
At least they should be using metals pricing at or above $2,800-$3,000.
We aren’t going to see gold prices at the $1,400-$1,800 level for many years (if ever), so using those low levels isn’t fiduciary responsibility to stakeholders; but rather, it is just terrible messaging to the larger investing world. Standing pat at those figures remains in stark contrast to the gold sales numbers they’ll be posting on their coming Q2 quarterly financials. That’s a huge gap…
No other sector prices its businesses on numbers from 3 years ago, because most businesses use the costs and sales prices of their products or services in the here and now. In trying to be too conservative it hinders recognition.
Investors are valuing Nvidia and doing forward-sales comparisons on where the costs and prices of their semiconductor chips are selling today, not where they were 3 years ago. Yes, the mining sector has to be resilient for potential future downturns in metals prices, but it does an absolute terrible job of marketing its future potential using the here and now or playing to its strengths. THAT is why so few generalist investors are interested in it. They can’t see the growth.
Most modern investors consider the mining industry old and boring.
That is precisely why NOW, when mining finally isn’t boring and is being discussed in US executive orders, that it should be flagged as relevant today. When we are seeing record earnings quarter after quarter, then that growth should be trumpeted far and wide. Then the sector would be shining.
Instead, the sector can’t seem to adapt to telling its story well in the present moment, nor in marketing to new people outside the industry.
Companies are either looking backwards at metals prices and economic studies from 2-3 years ago, or they are looking ahead to catalysts that may happen in 2030. You’ll never attract generalist investors by telling a story looking that far backward or forward in time.
Generalist investors want to make money this week, this month, this year… and they don’t care how the sausage is made or what it cost 3 years ago, or may cost in 3-5 years. They are looking for companies profitable today and growing.
This is not solved by the propensity of so many resource investors to make investing in mining stocks overly complex with far too much industry jargon. Again, most generalists don’t care about all that, or they end up thinking maybe this sector really is too complex for them to invest in and move on to Fartcoin.
Alphabet/Google investors don’t know all the coding behind how internet searches work, nor do they need to understand that to invest in the advertising revenues the company will generate, or in their models in anticipation of their future earnings.
Hardly anybody actually understands the intricacies of making semi-conductor chips, and for the vast majority of Nvidia investors – they don’t need to. They just need to know selling those chips makes a lot of money, and there is a lot of future demand for those chips.
The gold mining stock message is so simple “We are at record high gold prices, and gold producers have record high margins and thus record-high revenues. These gold producers are literally printing money… As a result they’re going to have to buy the gold developers to replace their mineral reserves… So buy the freakin’ gold stocks.”
Many of the sector pundits, conference speakers, and mining executives and boards are so obsessed with the long-term potential (which truth be told, they have no friggin’ way of even knowing - nobody does), that all those future models come at the expense of doing a good job marketing with the current tailwinds presently at the back of this sector. It’s an astonishing misreading of how to communicate with generalist investors, and really does not help improve sector sentiment at all.
Gold and silver metals prices are ripping NOW. The pm stocks should be ripping now. Most investors are fine with making the gains and ringing the register in the near-term (and not waiting perpetually for 5-10 years from now).
Sure, if there is longevity in the sector then that is wonderful too! Don’t misunderstand the point here…. Yes, we’d like to see the bull extend for a decade, but there are no guarantees that is going to happen, and it could all end in a year or two. I’d rather see a big leg higher that gets euphoric than nothing.
So, when the metals prices are actually running in real time, then most investors (already well-positioned and that have been waiting patiently) would like to see those big gains happening in tandem with reality. It’s a simple concept.
People keep obsessing on how long the bull market could go for, but missing the obvious point of how long it has ALREADY been going for… and so far the results have been underwhelming.
Sorry, but that approach and playbook just won’t attract generalist investors currently positioned in tech or AI or quantum or space stocks to suddenly drop everything and rush into mining stocks. Urgency will; 10-years out won’t.
That is why there isn’t more hype, better sentiment, and more momentum in the sector… the gold and silver stocks have, on the whole, fizzled in the face of very high prices in commodities, but the messaging is to hold on for 5-10 years.
Momentum breeds more momentum, and while this sector is starting to gain momentum, the reality is that it is way behind in where the gold stocks and even the silver stocks should be valued at this point.
Seeing silver stocks tank on Silver breaking up to $36 on Friday isn’t “better for the longevity of the sector”… that is 100% BS. It was a bummer… there is no other way around it. Hopefully we see some follow through in the silver price and silver stocks this week, or that was a bad signal from Friday’s selling.
The overall movement in the gold and silver stocks over the last year and half has been good, but clearly not great; but people saying that is actually ideal are completely full of horse manure.
What would have been ideal for the last year and a half is big swaths of PM investors starting to make life-changing gains, with ETFs blasting to new highs, and the big gains from investing in gold and silver stocks becoming too big to ignore from the financial news. Weren’t these stocks worthy of finally rerating?
That is what happened in tech stocks, AI stocks, crypto stocks, quantum stocks, etc… That is what builds an even larger base of generalists taking notice.
Even if the run in gold stocks peaks out a little earlier due to some extra media attention, then it really won’t matter if these stocks are up 10x, 15x, 20x. I'd much rather see the die-hard PM stock investors, that have waited patiently in position during the tough years, get rewarded with big windfall gains; rather than have it go to the Johnny-Come-Lately generalist investors that meanander in during the later innings of the game. I’d prefer to see the generalists chase this.
PM Investors can then take those massive returns to the bank and then go sit on a island ruminating about what to invest in next… there will always be the next investment… {Heck, that would line up right in time to dump those gains into copper and base metals companies, or maybe traditional energy stocks… or just pile them all into the royalty companies and ride off into the sunset.}
Let’s have a quick look at the chart of gold futures, which has remained strong:
There isn’t much to say here that is radically different than anything we’ve said the last few years. The gold price action has been bullish, and is still at very high historical levels. Gold got back up into the $3,400s last week, (which is constructive), but pulled back to end the week with pricing closing back down to $3346.60 on Friday. Bulls will want to see some follow through gains this week.
It’s hard to know how much of this strength in the yellow metal is trading momentum, how much is safe haven demand from financial and geopolitical risk, and how much is a response to the weakening US dollar and diversification out of US assets and into gold by international countries and financial institutions.
These historically high prices for gold in the $3,300’s and $3,400’s are providing the gold producers with commensurate record-high margins and revenues here in Q2. It would be nice if the gold equities were all at record levels to match.
Let’s see how this all translates over to the 5-year daily chart of GDXJ:
We can see that (GDXJ) finally got well above the August 2020 peak of $65.95; because it hit an intra-week high of $71.84, and closed this week at $69.00. Nice!
So, the reality is that even though the gold futures price put in its new all-time daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly highs back in November and December of 2023, then accelerated those moves in March of 2024 through present, that those higher metals prices didn’t translate to a breakout in gold stocks.
—> How in the world is that healthy for the sector? It’s a big letdown for most investors.
The sad truth is that it still took gold prices of near $3,400 for the 60-odd gold mid-tier producers & developers in the GDXJ to even get it back to where it was 5 years ago, when gold got up to $2089 for the first time. That’s not strength.
People that shrug off glaring discrepancies like that in the sector valuations as “healthy” or perpetually guiding for more “patience” are simply not thinking about either the company fundamental data being at max strength, nor this technical data showing the huge mismatch in current valuations to historic valuations with a critical mindset. It’s wishful thinking at best, and ignorance at worst.
GDXJ and SILJ should have blasted up to new highs long ago.
While they are gradually moving higher recently, it is sure “A day late and dollar short” thus far in this chapter of the ongoing bull market.
I don’t want to come off as a “Negative Nancy” but I’m trying to “Keep it real,” here in this channel. The goal is pointing out these disconnects as areas to monitor, but also potential opportunities to exploit, (if we ever seen sane sector valuations again).
Yes, I’m excited to see so much green on the screen and the PM stocks starting to move higher. “Everything is funny when you are making money…”
Yes, I know that some of the smaller silver producers and better developers had epic weeks, and just wrote about that earlier last week in this channel.
No, I’m not going to shrug off the action though at the end of last week where silver shot even higher to close at $36 as most silver stocks sold off. That makes no sense, and one would have expected a bit more buying in the space, and not selling. It just deserves monitoring to see how things trend now in the week to come, but it should have had more debate over the weekend than what I’ve seen.
No, I’m not going to brush away the underperformance of GDXJ, SILJ, or most of the sector for that matter over the last year and half. It’s been good, (and far better than more selling pressure), but valuations should have gone MUCH higher than where they are. That would not have been getting “too euphoric” or meant it was near the end of the move either in a “blow-off top.” This was well earned and should have been reflected in multi-fold valuations of many stocks higher.
Yes, I believe that this sector is still vastly undervalued and should rerate higher.
Yes, I’d like to see the sector rerating happen sooner rather than later, and then we can dither about the longevity of the cycle from the beaches of tropical islands.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
Shad