Precious Metals Update – BPGDM, GDX, Gold, Silver, and SIL
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (08-24-2025)
Last week was a wild rollercoaster ride in many markets, including the commodities and resource stocks. Despite this volatility, the vast majority of markets ended substantially higher to close the week, post-Powell-presser in Jackson Hole. Powell signaled that the Fed is leaning dovish coming into their September Federal Open Market Committed (FOMC) meeting, where a cut to the Fed funds rate is anticipated.
A personal anecdote: On Tuesday August 19th last week, I saw one the larger one-day percentage drops in my portfolio, which translated to the largest nominal dollar value drop I’ve ever experienced… (this caused me to gulp, with a bit of concern). Gold and silver stocks got hit with outflows, base metals and energy stocks were down or languishing, and uranium stocks really got smashed. However, over the next couple of days the resource stocks clawed their way higher and then sprung up on Friday’s close, marking an all-time portfolio account high valuation.
I designed my larger more diversified resource stock portfolio across different stages of gold, silver, royalties, uranium, copper, critical miners, and oil/gas equities to be hedged against downside risk, compared to those investors that go all-in on just a few earlier-stage drill plays in only one commodity. This is why Tuesday’s swoon lower was so uncharacteristic and concerning to me.
However, a more diversified portfolio is likewise accompanied with more muted upside moves; even though it is still designed to outperform in balance by peppering in some of the higher-torque selections at heavier weightings.
Regardless of the volatility this week, and larger basket of equities, the portfolio discussed here in his channel is up 127.68% year-to-date.
It’s been a great year of performance thus far, where this basket of curated resource stocks has been solidly outperforming both the general US equity indexes and also the specific resource sector ETFs. Apparently it has not been “too many stocks” to outperform most market segments. 😉
At the end of last week and over the weekend I had some correspondence from a number of other investors where they likewise were celebrating their outsized portfolio performance or moves to new highs in many of their portfolio stocks. It was interesting to absorb the overall change in tone within the precious metals sector in particular. A few of these folks had still remained somewhat concerned about the lack of movement in some of their portfolio for some time, even well into the huge sector rally we’ve seen over the last year and half. Now, they finally seemed pleased… (which did raise a yellow flag of concern in the back of my mind… more on that later in this article).
Then yesterday I drove up to Vancouver, Canada, and spoke with a handful of other resource investors, which echoed this same bullish sentiment, while attending the Capitalism and Morality conference (hosted by my friend and colleague Jayant Bhandari). This was more of a philosophical and macro-geopolitical conference, but there were still many resource investors in attendance to share ideas with.
https://jayantbhandari.com/capitalism-morality/capitalism-morality-2025/
The various folks we spoke with over at the KE Report, and the investors I communicated with were definitely beaming with positivity as things wrapped on Friday. Of course, it feels good to end the week’s trading session on a high note!
This made me think of the Seinfeld sketch where George Costanza turns his social interactions around by continually leaving conversations on a high note.
This very lesson that George learned in Seinfeld, has parallel relevance to investors here. When markets start to get too overbought, then it becomes time to consider ringing the register on a winning trade and leaving on a high note.
The good news for resource investors reading this, is that the daily pricing charts are NOT technically overbought in gold, silver, GDX, SIL, copper, COPX, or URNM at present. As a result, I personally see no need to take evasive action quite yet in my portfolio. We’ll review the precious metals charts in this commodities update, but then save copper and uranium updates for future articles.
Having said that, I’m now on high alert and will specifically be watching future price action in the gold and silver stocks with a more critical eye.
The recent bullish investor sentiment and strong price action in the PM stocks has made me take a moment of pause. It makes me uncomfortable when resource investors, or really investors in any sector, get to overly enthused, ebullient, or complacent. When the consensus view expects more continued bullish action for as far as the eye can see, and everyone is on one side of the boat, then Mr. Market loves to rock that thesis and knock some of those bullish passengers overboard… but not quite yet….
So, let’s get into it…
We’re going kick off this update a little differently than normal, because we are getting a cautionary signal on a critical gold equities chart, that is worth highlighting here at the onset.
The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM), is a breadth and strength tool with regards to the gold equities. I’ve used this tool for about a decade to assess when the gold stocks are starting to get to extreme overbought or oversold levels. The data on the (BPGDM) is calculated based on the number of stocks in this index that have Point & Figure strong buy signals. It is not a perfect indicator, (as there are no perfect chart indicators), but it is an incredibly helpful tool to utilize from a big picture vantage point on the gold producers.
Since the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index measures a percentage range between 0 and 100%, then it can only reach a reading from a low of 0 to a high of 100. Like many other percentage-based chart indicators, the readings on this chart are considered in oversold territory at anything below 30% and in overbought territory at anything over 70%. More extreme conditions are when its reading is below 20% or above 80%. It is similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, in that we often will see meaningful reversals to the trend after reaching those oversold or overbought readings for a while.
Therefore, this current 100% bullish reading on the ($BPGDM) chart should be quite alarming to anyone investing in the gold stocks.
One can see that extreme readings to the upside or downside often were in the neighborhood of where short-term, medium-term, or longer-term reversals happened on the charts.
If we are looking at the upper limits, the ($BPGDM) chart has only tagged this 100 reading 2 other times over the last decade… in July 2016 (which preceded the August 2016 top in gold stocks for a few years), in June/July 2020 (which preceded the August 2020 top in gold stocks for a few years). I distinctly remember posting about this repeatedly over on the KE Report blog in July of 2020, to mostly deaf ears…
($BPGDM) closed on Friday August 22nd at the 100 reading once again.
Does this current reading of 100 infer that in a month or 2 we’ll see another multi-year top in the gold equities? (not necessarily, but any non-biased observer would have to admit that this chart is at a peak reading. There is only one direction it can go from here…)
Again, this is NOT a perfect tool and can give a buy/sell signal way too early.
We can also see that last year in mid 2024 that the ($BPGDM) chart went up and tagged 92.86% of gold stocks were bullish, and gold stocks have ratcheted much higher from those levels. If one would have sold everything at that point last year, using that reading, then they’d have missed the very epic sector rally we’ve seen all year in 2025.
To be crystal clear, I’m not suggesting or advising anyone to sell all their gold stocks here, (because this is not financial advice and I’m not a financial advisor).
👉 What I am pointing out is that we’ve only seen this 100 level hit 2 other times in the last decade, and it preceded a multi-year top in the gold equities, staring a month afterwards in both 2016 and 2020. For that reason, it at least is worthy of closer attention. Personally, I’ll be watching the gold stock ETFs and individual gold stocks with much more scrutiny in the weeks and months to come, looking for a potential near-term top.
To be clear, these conditions don’t mean that markets can’t just stay overbought for longer than folks expect, or that pricing can’t just keep running much higher than technical analysts would anticipate. It is prudent to occasionally stop mid-celebration and at least review if things are getting a bit frothy in the near-term.
It is also important to note: Even when/if conditions do start getting overbought and a bit toppy in the short-term, that is not in any way the same thing as an end to the secular bull market or longer-term trend. It is important to also look at things from different time frames (hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly).
On Friday’s KE Report Daily Editorial, Cory and I were joined by our friend and colleague Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of Junior Miner Junky. Dave shared his outlook on precious metals and mining equities as the sector continues its bullish momentum. We did discuss the high ($BPGDM) reading to close the week at 100%. While he conceded that it could signal an eventual short-term correction in the larger gold equities, Dave remains quite bullish in for the longer-term technical and fundamental setup in both gold and the PM stocks. I agree with him on both fronts!
To Dave’s point, we do have a lot of macroeconomic tailwinds at the back of gold itself. It seems more unlikely that we are at a longer-term top in gold here.
Additionally, we are not overbought on either the gold daily chart or GDX daily chart. Let’s have a look at both those charts.
The GDX is up almost 300% since putting in its intermediate bottom back in September of 2022, going from $21.52 up to tag a new 52-week high of $60.18 on Friday to end this last week. That is bullish action.
The GDX remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping it in a bullish posture.
Despite this bullish pricing history, the RSI reading is still only 68.52, which is getting loftier…yes, but still not in an extreme overbought condition.
The ADX +DI (green line) has the positive trend up 33.94, and the -DI (red line) down at 17.61, which has the chart in a bullish posture. Notably the main ADX 14-day reading is only at 20.66 and while sloping higher the last few weeks is not in super strong momentum level. The GDX has been in a bullish run, and there are no warning signs of a imminent top; at least the way the chart has played out thus far.
So while a consolidation of pricing to go back down to test the 50-day EMA is quite possible, it is also just as likely (even more so until we see something change) that the pricing trend continues to the upside until getting into more overbought levels.
If we do see some weakness show up on the daily chart in the weeks to come, then we’ll zoom back some, and have a look at the weekly chart timeframe to see how things look from a more medium-term perspective.
With regards to gold futures, we saw a solid close at $3,418.50 on Friday to end the week.
Gold pricing remains in a bullish posture above its 50-day EMA (with a current reading at $3,374)
Gold has mostly been correcting through time, versus price, which has allowed the RSI to go neutral, with a current reading at 54.17
In addition to the continued bullish technical setup in gold, there are many fundamental factors that are still stacking up in this monetary metal’s favor; from continued central bank buying, rising national debt levels around the globe, and the continued debasement of fiat currencies.
Silver remains well-bid, closing the week at $39.05 on Friday with a solid bullish daily candle.
Silver remains in a bullish posture, solidly above the 50-day EMA, (currently at $37.33).
There remains longer-term lateral overhead price resistance (from back in 2011) at the $41-$42 range; and so we’ll see if silver has enough juice to go up and test that level in the coming weeks.
The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), has a very similar chart to that of GDX covered earlier in this article; where it is likewise getting closer to having tripled off its 2022 low at $21.28, to where it closed on Friday at a new 52-week high of $55.33.
(SIL) is bullishly above its 50-day EMA, (currently at $50.05).
The RSI is moving up, but still not overbought at 65.04
The ADX +DI (green line) has a reading of 35.25, and the ADX -DI (red line) has a reading of 17.91, with the ADX (14-day) solidly in the middle at 25.58, showing neutral strength of the move higher, but keeping things in an overall bullish posture.
The overall takeaway from the technical outlook of the precious metals sector is that gold, silver, GDX, and SIL all remain in bullish postures, and are not in extreme overbought conditions at this time.
Investors participating in the precious metals sector have been witness to a bull market for many years now whether they embraced it or not. The beginning of this bull traces all the way back to when gold put in its Major Low back in December of 2015, and when the mining stock ETFs put in their Major Lows back in mid-January of 2016.
After the explosive beginnings of the initial first wave of the “Baby Bull” in PM stocks from January 2016-August 2020, there was a 2-year consolidation of that huge move for the balance of that year through the fall of 2018. People incorrectly assumed that bull market was over, but it was really more of digestion move, and neither gold or the gold stocks made new lower lows beyond those of Dec 2015/Jan 2016 respectively.
The next big wave higher in the PM sector was from October of 2018 through August of 2020 (with the obvious interruption by the pandemic crash of March 2020).
Pundits and punters that only discuss the move in 2020 post-pandemic crash in isolation, are not recalling the situation accurately. Many of them have huge amnesia of the big moves higher in most of the quality gold producers that actually kicked off in October of 2018 and continued on through 2019 and into early 2020. They often leave out the duration and amplitude of that whole bullish leg, because they were not properly positioned for it during that time period.
Many investors remained way too bearish back then and were out of position, or they were positioned exclusively in earlier-stage pre-revenue PM stocks that were not capitalizing on the rising metals prices. Make no mistake about it, the quality gold producers like (Agnico Eagle, Lundin Gold, Dundee Precious Metals, Alamos Gold, Kinross, K92 Mining, Wesdome, GDX, etc…) were starting their next runs higher back in late 2018 and ran for almost 2 years (not just 6 months).
That period from October 2018 - August 2020 is one of the most conveniently overlooked periods of this bull market by so many investors and commentators, but is important to properly understanding where we are in the current secular gold and gold equities bull market cycle.
After the August 2020 peak in gold equities, they corrected for the next 2 years in what could well be considered a cyclical bear market within the larger secular bull market. This was a rough period for PM resource stock investors for sure.
The next big intermediate wave higher within this ongoing secular bull market began back in September of 2022, where silver, GDX, and SIL bottomed, and when gold put it its first false breakdown intermediate low near $1620. That level in gold would be tested 2 more times through early November of 2022, putting in a triple-bottom Intermediate Low of $1,614.
There were so many technicians and pundits calling for much lower prices in gold (down to retest $1450 or $1375); and yet obviously that isn’t what happened. In fact, the exact opposite is what played out; with gold tacking on several hundred dollars and both PM stocks and silver blasting higher from the fall of 2022 into early 2023. That is why it is referred to as a “false breakdown.”
When gold broke out next on the daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly charts in November and December of 2023, then that is what set up the conditions for the following acceleration phase of the bull.
This acceleration phase of this wave within the larger secular bull market really took off with more voracity back in early March of 2024 and has kept running through present day. That does NOT mean it was the “beginning of a new bull market.” People that claim such have clearly not been paying attention to the duration of this bull market on the charts, and they simply must not be holding many quality gold producers in their portfolios (or even tracking them for a feel of what has been playing out in the sector); because they’ve been running for many years now as already outlined.
Obviously individual mining stock results can vary to a great deal, based on their unique fundamental drivers and technical factors. Because of this, many investors have been oblivious to the larger patterns playing out in the sector, because they view everything through the lens of their own portfolio of lagging junior stocks.
Some investors may have missed out on big swaths of the bull market thus far, and many people timed their entries and exits wrong during the pops and drops along this journey. The bull market doesn’t care, and has continued on with or without their acknowledgment or participation. The facts and data on the charts are the reality.
Many quality senior PM producers have doubled again just in the first 8 months of 2025, and some of the mid-tier to smaller producers have even tripled this year.
There has been a growing chorus of louder voices declaring that the PM bull market just got started over the last year or so. Some pundits I’ve listened to on podcast recently have stated the PM bull market hasn’t even begun yet, but is looking to eventually get started in the not-so-distant future. Those claims are patently false. On one hand this is concerning, and on the other hand not surprising.
Resource investors must have some real discernment, and know when to shake their heads at ridiculous comments like that. Nobody in their right mind could actually believe that the PM bull market has not even begun yet!
Gold has tripled from $1045.40 back in December of 2015 to over $3,400 today.
The GDX has gone up almost 5-fold in that time period, from the 2016 low at $12.40 to where it closed on Friday at $60.18.
Silver has more than tripled off its low of $11.64 to where it closed on Friday at $39.05.
Silver stocks have likewise more than tripled with SIL bottoming at $16 and closing on Friday at $55.33.
That is quite the bull market action, and surely moves higher like that are not bear market action.
Like we’ve discussed over and over again on this channel; there is no way that “we’re are still in the first or second inning of this PM secular bull market.” (Nope)
As the old saying goes: “Documentation beats conversation.” Pull up a chart, like we have so often in prior articles, and inspect when the Major Low was put in for gold or GDX or GDXJ. It was roughly a decade ago….
The macro and micro conditions are still there to keep extending this bull market in gold, silver, and the PM equities, and the junior stocks have finally started to come alive in a more meaningful way over the last year.
This acceleration phase of the PM secular bull market has finally moved the sector sentiment into a more cheerful bulled-up disposition from investors, and the animal spirits have truly awakened once again. Better late than never….
All of this quantitative data funneling into the current pricing trends in the larger quality gold producers is why we just had a ($BPGDM) reading of 100 on Friday’s close. Again, that doesn’t mean we should sell our gold stocks or mean the upside move in this leg is done yet; because it usually precedes corrections by a month or two.
We could still see a really big blow off-top buying exhaustion move in the medium-term before putting in a more serious corrective move lower. Additionally, that won’t necessarily mean that is final upside target in this markets either.
That highest reading possible at 100 in the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index also does not necessarily mean the gold bull market is getting ready to consolidate lower for a few years, even though that it what it signaled back in 2016 and 2020 when it was last hit. We don’t know what it means… but it is a bell ringing.
We are at a different point in the PM cycle than 2016 or 2020, with a different macroeconomic and global geopolitical backdrop at this point in the trend.
Most pundits believe we still have years to run in the larger secular PM bull market, and I’d agree with that. However, we are going to have some gut-wrenching corrections along the way, just like we already have been having along this decade-long journey thus far. (ie… late 2016 through fall of 2018, the pandemic crash of 2020, the summer of 2020 through the fall of 2022).
Having said all that…. When one combines the PM sector outperformance in 2025, compared to most other sectors, including the US equity markets, and the surging sentiment from resource investors, then it does makes this high-water mark reading in the ($BPGDM) something quite noteworthy. I highlighted this here in detail because this chart-based evidence should have resource investors monitoring the overall PM sector, as well as the stocks within their portfolio, much more closely in the weeks and months to come.
In the interim, stay tuned for some upcoming articles on which types of junior PM stocks have the most torque in a bull market, some company deep-dives on growth oriented gold and silver produces and developers, some exploration updates from the explorers, a review of the copper and uranium sectors, and an oil & gas royalty company I’ve added to the portfolio over the last month. Lots of articles in the works.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
· Shad