Okay, Let’s Keep Talking About Silver Then…
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (01-05-2026)
As much as I have enjoyed branching back out recently in articles covering the polymetallic producers, copper explorers and developers, and uranium stocks, it’s hard to ignore the investor interest and focus on silver and gold… but particularly silver. We’ll circle back around to other commodities in short order, including updates on critical minerals, and even traditional energy like oil & natural gas. But for today…. SILVER.
This one-off article is part informative, part entertaining, and part concerning all at once; as it relates to the overall market discussion around investing in silver.
So, let’s get into it…
We’ll get into the technical outlook for silver pricing a little bit further down in this piece, where I’ll include chart analysis across different timeframes, but first…
It’s important to address the growing spread of potential misinformation in the silver sector. The more that silver pricing runs red hot, and as we see volatile outsized price swings, then it makes this market more turbulent, and thus makes market commentary and online theories more extreme. Lately some silver market commentary has gone off into bizarro land…
Right out of the gates let me clear up any misconceptions that may arise from me being slightly critical about this corner of the investing universe. I think anyone that has read this channel over the last couple of years, or listened to our interviews over at the KE Report for years, or that follows my content over at the Grey Swan Investing Fraternity, or that has listened to me in other interviews on other platforms will know that I’m a huge proponent of resource investing, and am particularly animated by gold, silver, copper, and uranium stocks.
I really do have a particular affinity for silver though, because it was my ‘gateway’ into investing in the broader commodity complex. Whenever the opportunity arises, I do try and give a hat tip to silver, silver miners, and silver investors… and overall they are a really wild cast of characters!
As a kid I enjoyed collecting coins, but then sold my entire numismatic collection later in life, during 2008, when I was having a financial crisis in my business. Then the actual Great Financial Crisis happened months later, and my buyer’s remorse set in immediately. I never should have sold those Morgan silver dollars and Mercury dimes!
In 2008, post-GFC unraveling, I started stacking tubes of silver maple leaf coins. Someone at the coin show where I sold everything gave me a DVD with David Morgan on it. After feeling like an idiot upon realizing I had just sold all my silver in a financial pinch, I decided to sell a bunch of baseball cards and other collectibles instead, and bought back all that silver and then some…
Then a couple years later in 2010 I really got into trading mining stocks to accumulate shares of companies with metal locked in the vault of the Earth, for a fraction of the cost of an aboveground ounce.
I’ve probably traded about 50+ silver stocks over the last 15 years, and currently hold 16 silver stocks in my portfolio (w/ ~20 at one point last year).
Bottom line: I’m a fan of both silver itself and staunch supporter of investing in the silver mining industry.
Having said all that… There is a TON of narrative noise in the silver space… Always… but particularly at present.
We witness narrative noise when any sector really gets running (whether that is Crypto, AI, or Biotech), but in silver there seems to be more of innate desire to have some elaborate grand narrative behind it, compared to say zinc or tin or sugar.
Granted, silver’s price discovery does seem to have been suppressed, at least to a degree, by large banking and financial entities continually throwing their weight around in the markets for a long time, in concert with action from the LBMA or COMEX exchanges.
So, after decades of financial spoofing being caught inside financial institutions (where they got fined), or so many days where huge volume shows up to paint the tape at key junctures, or the countless inopportune market dumps in early morning hours, or running the stops during low volume holiday trading, and then the constant raising of margin requirements to tamp down prices, then most silver investors have gotten frustrated and want to see it truly break out and ‘trade freely.’
That frustration is understandable because all investors should desire free markets and more authentic price discovery based on true supply and demand.
The reality is that all markets have some degree of intervention from the largest players with the most capital, most power, and most motivation to cause a particular outcome. So, it is not really shocking that this has been happening in a tinier market like silver in a more extreme way…
If prices move up or down in any extreme fashion, then suddenly out come all of the various narratives.
People unleash their extreme click-bait price projections, theories about what is happening behind the scenes with the physical metals in complex relationships between bullion banks, refiners, countries, policy makers, financial institutions, fabricators, manufacturers, mining companies, whale investors, and retail punters.
It’s very hard to sort out all these competing narratives, and we are faced with an information overload, paralyzing some investors into inaction.
We constantly hear or read all kinds of explanations for WHY things are happening, but have very little way of knowing for certain IF those stated theories are legitimate, or precisely WHAT is actually happening to move pricing in a particular direction at a given time.
It is rarely just one factor, and there are always multiple factors as play.
When people present ‘silver bullet’ solutions or the “1 thing” that matters for a complex market like gold or silver or copper… then run away… because they’ve either got a major agenda, or they are oversimplifying a multifaceted market.
Markets are fluid dynamic systems, with so many different moving parts and data inputs, from both carbon-based human speculators and silicon-based algo-driven feedback loops.
With silver there is even more ambiguity around the cause of extreme pricing catalysts due to its hybrid nature:
There is silver’s 40% precious metals component, and how it trends along with the direction of gold, the gold:silver ratio, and then all the macroeconomic factors of interest rates, currency effects, fiscal policy, monetary policy, geopolitics, investment demand in bars and coins, ETFs, investor sentiment, and momentum.
Then the industrial component for silver makes up 60% of demand for use in solar panels, electronics, manufacturing, and jewelry.
Then there are the spreads between physical spot prices and futures paper prices, the ongoing tug-of-war for which price to follow or use in analysis, and whether they are in contango or backwardation.
There is NOT simply just one factor to follow or watch out for.
To complicate matters, now we live in the age of Artificial Intelligence generated synthetic content, ‘Deep Fakes,’ ‘fake news,’ and disinformation campaigns designed to look like legitimate media sources.
This programmed content is also really well-produced, quite compelling, but can often lead people down rabbit holes of false narratives… or it is designed to exploit biases in a way that really puts people’s investment capital at risk.
There has always been biased content with a particular tilt… but, it’s just that in this tech age, the division between what people consider true or false, or probable or total BS is getting less and less discernible.
The sophistication of some platforms has improved so much in presenting questionable information in a compelling way, and still the propaganda pump machine continues to evolve in new avenues.
In the silver space recently, you’d need to be living in a cave or hiding under a rock, not to have heard of “Jon AG” aka… “Asian A.I. Guy” from the plethora of content that is being cranked out across a myriad of YouTube channels about the fundamentals and click-bait price predictions in the silver sector.
If you’re not familiar with what is going on, then here’s just 1 recent example: Once you see the format, cadence, and AI generated art to synch with the now infamous A.I. avatar, then you’ll probably see plenty of the look-a-like ‘clone’ sites pumping out nearly identical content.
SILVER TAKEOVER: China’s Secret Squeeze, The $25k Margin Nuke, & The Path to $100.
Again, much of this silver content is quite compelling, well-researched, and on-point, BUT… then in many videos there are weird comments about Reddit Apes, the failed 2021 #SilverSqueeze movement, stretched and embellished theories on major financial institutions (of course featuring JP Morgan), that wouldn’t really be in the wheelhouse of a serious sector analyst, and is more akin to the stale talking points from that “WallStreetSilver”narrative from a few years ago.
There are geopolitical motivations presented as a matter of fact, that completely unravel as more news comes in. Then there are flat out incorrect market data points or false news stories intermixed with all the other points that skew the valid data points just to feed a narrative. So, those aspects are quite concerning, and may cause investors that don’t know any better to take extreme action at the wrong time.
After viewing about a half dozen of these videos in their entirety, and about another half dozen just skipping through them in pieces, it gave me an odd sense that something is not quite right here. A large number of sector voices have been speaking out against this phenomenon, or at least urging extreme caution.
Personally: I’ve publicly praised the effort and yet raised the caution flag very high about this online phenomenon around silver investing, urging people to use discernment, and take all of this data dumping with a HUGE grain of salt.
Sure, most silver bugs appreciate the overall initiative and awareness building aspect of this campaign, along with some of the compelling research included that is quite informative. It is then all packaged up in a massive online campaign to push a narrative that frames physical silver stackers in a very positive light overall. That really resonates with many PM investors… but it’s playing to their biases…
This makes all these new channels mushrooming up all over YouTube an overall net positive for building awareness about investing in silver, and there is good info on how the physical markets are diverging from the paper markets.
However, the purposeful insertion of misleading or downright false information and the dubious nature of how this is being pumped out in a spam-like fashion makes it hard to get behind in any serious way. Once a few purposely false facts or red herring narratives get injected into the rest of the content, it then makes one question the whole testimony your honor.
There is also the red flag of just the sheer speed at which this content is coming out, across a few dozen YouTube channels every few hours, often with flip-flopping narratives, that has left some investors and commentators dizzy in the aftermath.
As only a mere human content creator, let me tell you that it takes a lot of time to do things manually in this process, from the scheduling, recording, editing, writing, and then posting across multiple platforms. This shock and awe campaign that we are witnessing is truly staggering in how quickly the new content is bubbling up.
There are also these dubious sudden large audience numbers, in what appears to be buying clicks and buying likes (something no self-respecting content creator would do), and the potential that many of the comments are from online bots.
I’ve asked other investors and thought leaders in the sector what they think of all this and some have very strong opinions about it being a psychological operation (psy-op) on full display, or that it is being run by institutional players, or is China or JP Morgan in disguise, or that it is actually YouTube sanctioning it to generate advertising revenue. Others just shake their heads and laugh, and are at a total loss for words about what this could all amount to.
I just watched a YouTube video that summarizes this phenomenon and felt it was very thought-provoking and worth sharing with resource investors here; if for no other reason to encourage folks to have their guard up when digesting future online content.
In full disclosure, I’ve never heard of this Comex Visigoths YouTube channel before either, and it also appears to be an A.I. generated content channel on precious metals! What is going on here?
For all we know, it could very well be part of the same network of operations, simply analyzing itself to build more awareness for itself and the silver narrative.
Some of the thumbnail art and title fonts and main points are quite similar between all these channels, so it may be A.I. synthetic content that is now analyzing other A.I. synthetic content. What a wild world we now live in!
The reason I’m posting this in an article is that it does feature quotes and reactions from friends that I personally know like Craig Hemke and Don Durrett, and other people in the sector that I’m at least familiar with like Trader Stef and Steve Angelo. This could still just be A.I. sourcing good info but then using it build awareness for self-interested reasons.
You all can be the judge on what to takeaway from it, but this one pokes a lot of holes in the “Jon AG” aka “Asian AI Guy” content proliferation. On purpose?
Asian AI Guy: Silver PsyOp or False Flag Operation?
Another friend, John Rubino, which we’ve featured in this channel before also weighed in on this topic around “Asian A.I. Guy,” and so it seemed pertinent to be included in this discussion.
Is Asian Guy a False Flag? John Rubino – Substack - Dec 29, 2025
BTW: John I and just recorded a really good podcast at the very end of December, and I already posted it in another article… but just for those that may have missed it:
It also came to my attention that Chris Marcus, over at Arcadia Economics, is calling out the new A.I. “Asian Guy” programmer, and believes he knows who is behind all of this media pomp and circumstance…
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So, regardless of where you land with all of this proliferation of A.I. content creation, I just want to issue a special ‘Thank You’ to all those folks who are still supporting actual human beings creating content. It is very much appreciated!
Speaking of human beings creating content, here is the latest discussion with my friend and colleague, Christopher Aaron, Founder of iGold Advisor, Elite Private Placements, and Senior Editor at the Gold Eagle website. He joined me on Friday over at the KE Report, to review his short-term and longer-term technical outlook on Silver, silver stocks via (SIL) relative to silver, Gold, and the long-term DOW:Gold ratio chart. It may not be fancy A.I. images, but it is 2 pals talking technically about the precious metals charts, and I think Christopher makes a lot of cogent points for investors to consider.
Christopher Aaron – 45-Year Breakout In Silver To New All-Time Highs, and 45-Year Breakdown In DOW to Gold Ratio, In Favor Of Precious Metals
Christopher lays out the technical case for why silver is likely going up into a 3X-5X move from the $50 breakout, even if we see one more corrective consolidation move in the near-term. He points to the propensity of commodities to make moves like this when breaking out of long base-building periods, citing prior moves like this in gold, copper, platinum, and oil.
We also check in on the SIL:Silver ratio chart and note the stark undervaluation and muted leverage thus far in the silver equities, and how they are going make a large catchup move in the years to come.
Next, we shift over to his Christopher’s technical outlook on gold from a short to medium-term perspective, and in the context of all the historic data from the move in gold from pegged to the US dollar and post the unpegging and freely trading gold price over the last 5+ decades.
Wrapping up, we discuss what he feels is the most important chart, the longer-term data from the DOW:Gold ratio, and that we are setting up for the “Fourth Turning” in how gold will be revalued relative to general US equities. This is the key chart to follow as it relates to seeing a rotation from generalist investors in tradition equities to precious metals equities.
Here is my technical take on Silver pricing, just for another hot take on this hot commodity:
Silver Futures – Monthly chart:
Silver is now putting in the 9th green monthly candle in a row! That is quite unusual, but we are in a raging bull market.
November, December, and so far in January we have seen new all-time monthly high levels achieved in silver, which is undeniably bullish action.
It is crystal clear that 2025 kicked off the acceleration phase of this PM bull market.
Pricing is getting a bit parabolic here due to the speed of this huge surge higher, so it may need to back and fill a little bit at a lower support level, or at least put in a red candle at one point soon in a pause that refreshes.
Also worth noting: Look at the size and price range of the last handful of monthly candles. Those are far bigger price ranges than we’ve seen in many years on the silver monthly chart.
Silver futures – Weekly chart:
We did see a red candle post last week on the silver chart, playing out that really wild final week of December trading volatility.
Some analysts were worried that this could mean that silver just topped out, after 5 blistering weeks higher in green candles. However, in overseas trading silver is back to making a new green candle again to kick off this week; so we’ll see how things develop.
It is also worth highlighting that weekly candles we have been seeing are much longer-bodies. Just like we see on the monthly charts, these price ranges are much larger weekly price ranges than we’ve seen in many years…. Hence the volatility.
Silver futures – Daily chart:
On this daily chart the all-time intraday high is showcased at $82.67, from December 29th, 2025; because it is the new overhead resistance level to see silver clear in the near to medium-term.
It is possible that silver is starting to form a bullish pennant, and so that may mean we get one more blast higher in pricing to new ATHs, before seeing silver take a break and correct for a while.
The 45-year Cup & Handle pattern from $4 trough to the $50 rim of the cup, and breakout level, projects up to a $96 level. ($50-$4 = $46 + $50 breakout = $96).
It still seems reasonable that silver will make a run at this $96 level in the medium-term, but it may need to take a short breather first.
If we do see a continued bullish move that just keeps ripping higher and gets up anywhere close to that level, then I may personally lighten up on a few of my silver positions at that time.
LATE MONDAY UPDATE:
Most of January 5th silver was up 7%-8%+, and yet most of the silver producers were up a lesser amount or some were actually down on the day, in the face of this big move higher during the first trading session of this week... as their margins and revenues keep expanding bigly. Makes sense right? (Nope)
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Ticker – Silver Producers – Percentage change at close on Monday Jan 5th, 2026
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +8.31%
SM.V Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. +6.43%
AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +6.10%
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +5.98%
SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +5.04%
HL Hecla Mining Company +4.56%
FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. +4.51%
GSVR.V Guanajuato Silver Company Ltd. +4.35%
PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +4.09%
SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +3.83%
AYA.TO Aya Gold & Silver Inc. +3.29%
GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +2.41%
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +2.36%
HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc +1.27%
USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +0.78%
SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +0.56%
AGX.V Silver X Mining Corp. -0.46%
FRES.L Fresnillo plc -0.63%
KUYA.CN Kuya Silver Corporation -0.88%
APM.TO Andean Precious Metals Corp. -4.23%
IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. -5.17%
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Where is that 3:1 outperformance been in the silver stocks the last few weeks as silver keeps blasting higher and higher?
Like we’ve been reporting the last few weeks and months, the silver stocks have simply not kept up with these blistering moves higher in silver, as it relates to their continually expanding economics.
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of the TF Metals Report, joined me on Monday January 5th to kick off the first full trading week of 2026. We reviewed the strong close to end last year, and the even stronger start to this year in gold, silver, copper, and the precious metals stocks. We also break down the macroeconomic factors that matter moving into the year to come.
Craig Hemke – Strong Start To 2026 In Gold, Silver, and Copper – Macroeconomic Factors That Matter
🔹 We start off reviewing the big moves higher today across the metals complex with gold, silver, copper, at or near all-time highs in what is typically a quite seasonally strong period of the year for this part of the commodities sector.
👉 Craig points out that while the metals have been undeniably strong, that the related mining stocks have only had lackluster responses over the last few weeks; considering how much their profit margins and project economics have expanded.
This brings up the lagging valuations in lieu of the much higher average metals price in Q4 over Q3, where gold, silver, platinum, and copper all closed the month of December, the fourth quarter, and the year at all-time high closes on the longer-duration charts.
Craig feels that this is what is truly germane for institutional investors and analysts, as they tend to block out the short-term noise and focus on the longer-term trends that are in motion.
🔹 When we look at where metals prices are to kick off the year in early January, they are at levels that are so much higher than those average prices in Q4. It is hard to imagine that Q1 isn’t going to see even higher average metals prices, and thus even higher record revenues or project economics.
This raises the question: Why aren’t more investors getting in front of those trends and bidding the quality mining shares much higher than they’ve responded thus far?
Craig feels a great deal of this lack of leverage in the mining stocks lately is coming from a sympathetic lack of belief from most investors that these prices are going to stay up at these levels.
🔹 One factor that has continued to tamp down futures pricing in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium over the last few weeks has been the COMEX raising margin requirements on any big price moves higher.
Many investors are concerned that if this raising of margins requirements persists that it could trigger a selling cascade lower. Craig weighs on the history and dynamics around these moves by the Chicago commodities exchange.
🔹 The conversation then transitions over into what factors are going to keep underpinning higher metals prices in the year to come.
We review the arbitrage between the physical and paper silver markets both in terms of the current backwardation between higher spot prices over future prices, and from prices seen on the Shanghai exchange versus the COMEX.
Craig mentions that while he doesn’t feel there is a direct safe haven bid today after the weekend geopolitical events between the US and Venezuela, but conceded that this action still may underpin other nations’ central banks to keep buying gold and diversifying out of US dollars as a precaution.
He mentions that the export controls from China placed on silver, all while silver and gold were listed as critical minerals in the US as other positive tailwinds.
Another key factor he is watching is what we’ll see in 2026 with regards to central bank monetary policy here in the US, once Trump installs a more dovish head to the Fed mid-year. Craig also continues to watch for potential yield curve control through monetary policy, if the interest rates get too extreme in either direction.
Following up on our last conversation, and looking ahead to Craig’s coming 2026 Macro-Cast report due out later this week, we revisit the potential for Scott Bessent and the treasury department to monetize aspects of the US balance sheet (notably a potential repricing in gold) to help fund a sovereign wealth fund.
Well, this was a zany silver update, but it felt like a good time to review the technicals and the sector chatter around the silver investing journey in these volatile markets.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
Shad