Gold futures tagged $3,500 in overseas trading, getting up to $3,509 about an half hour ago.
This move is coming on the heels of the vault in the gold futures prices over $3,400, that we saw from Sunday evening to Monday’s trading session, for a record high close at $3,431.82.
Gold stacked on $105.55 just on Monday (04/21/2025).
Yes, this was another all-time daily closing high… (once again).
Tuesday Update (04/22/2025):
No sooner than gold had hit the $3,500 level it has reversed course down in a big way the following trading session in North America,dropping down below $3,400 to $3,388 at the time of this writing.
Look at all those red candles into a fishing-line selloff.
The general US equity markets have turned around and blasted higher on Tuesday as well, so apparently risk is back off again… What a rollercoaster.
Gold has been on quite a tear higher in 2025, acting as the sole global safe haven, whereas the US dollar and US bonds have been selling down further for much of this year.
One curious takeaway from Monday’s trading action, was how most gold stocks opened up in the morning, based on the higher gold price above the $3,400s; but then many sold off hard during the day. Some of the gold producers and developers went negative by 1%-6% on a day when gold producer margins and development project economics were expanding by over $100 an ounce.
Why would gold producers, (or silver producers with strong gold credits), be selling off at all into these growing margins and anticipated future revenues?
We were talking with folks for interviews over at the KE Report, and it was strange to report that gold had broken up to new all-time highs above $3,400; but at that time the GDX was down, Newmont was down, many gold producers and quality developers were down… it was an odd dichotomy.
Eventually, in the final “power hour” of trading, the gold stocks rebounded with many that closed marginally in the green, or only mildly down in the red.
It should also be noted that there were some gold producers and developers that did have solid outsized gains and runs on the day, but that wasn’t as common.
Now that we are seeing even higher prices, currently in the $3,490s in overseas trading, will we continue to see this muted response in the gold producers and developers, or can they start leveraging these moves in the gold price?
Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TF Metals Report, joined us on Monday at the KE Report to break down an increasingly chaotic market environment where gold surged while nearly everything else sold off. The S&P 500 was down over 3% at one point, the U.S. dollar has dropped 11% in 100 days, bonds have kept selling off while bond yields have been rising. Craig unpacked the different elements driving this unprecedented divergence, and why gold has continued to be the major winner.
Craig Hemke – Gold Breaks $3,400 as Global Markets Unravel
Key themes we cover:
Capital flight out of U.S. assets and the breakdown of traditional “safe havens”
Why this gold move feels different from any in recent memory
Gold stocks lagging despite surging margins at $3,400 gold
The potential setup for silver to play catch-up as the gold-silver ratio holds above 100
Whether gold stocks could finally decouple from silver and get re-rated on fundamentals
Craig also shares insights on the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, revealing gold’s rally is not driven by overcrowded hedge fund positioning, but possibly a commercial short squeeze.
We close with a look at what gold miners might do with these outsized margins; M&A, dividends, buybacks, or development spending, and whether generalist capital will finally rotate into the sector.
Erik Wetterling, Founder and Editor of The Hedgeless Horseman website, joined me over at the KE Report on Monday to discuss gold’s standout role as a safe haven, amidst the extreme market volatility. We also delve into how all of this is translating into muted reactions in gold stocks to their greatly improving economics and the rerating opportunities present at current valuations.
Erik Wetterling – PM Stocks Have Muted Reaction To Record High Gold Prices Above $3400
We noted the odd market action where a number of prominent precious metals producers sold off for a big portion of the day, with their margins continuing to expand - only clawing their way higher towards the end of the trading session.
Many development projects with gold as primary or contributing input and expanding economics, were also selling off during much of Monday’s trading session, with some of them recovering in the final hour of trading.
🗣 Quote: “It makes perfect sense from human psychology perspective, margin-call perspective, and profit-taking perspective, given how well gold miners have done in the recent weeks and months.”
Erik highlighted the importance of market psychology and investor sentiment and how those factor into price moves. We discussed that some investors may not believe this move higher in metals prices is going to stick, or they have become too fearful to take actions. Other investors may be concerned by the selling in other markets, and thus they have been pulling profits on one of the few sectors in the green this year.
“It took me years to actually appreciate just how much sentiment alone - psychology, drives the everyday stock prices. I used to think that, you know…, you get into the market and it’s a well-oiled high-efficiency pricing machine; but it’s actually not, and we’re seeing that again today.”
“At face value if a gold mine is making more money today than yesterday, then it is worth more on this day than it was yesterday. So, it makes no real sense why any gold producer should be at a lower price today than yesterday. But still, that happens and things have been volatile… That doesn’t make any sense at all, but that is how the markets function.”
- Erik Wetterling
We go on to discuss future anticipated M&A deal activity in the sector, opportunities in Tier 1, versus Tier 2, versus Tier 3 deposits, and the advantages for junior companies with producing gold mines and permitted near-term production assets for the balance of the discussion.
Let’s see if a wider swath of the gold producers and advanced gold developers can attract a healthy bid moving forward, once more investors get the memo about expanding margins and revenues.
Maybe it will help put things in context for gold stock investors and generalists checking in on this sector when the Q1 2025 numbers start getting reported, over the next month or so.
It will be clear that Q1 provided expanded revenues and cash flows beyond the Q4 2024 numbers; at the much higher average gold price around $2,900+ per ounce sold. (compared to $2,680 in Q4)
Then, as investors look ahead to how Q2 is developing thus far, with gold oscillating between $3,000-$3,500 per ounce, it very well could be that margins are expanding even further and will beat out those from Q1.
We call that a trend… and eventually even people that have never owned a gold stock before are going to start to notice the massive earnings coming out of the precious metals complex.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
