Flash Update: $3,800 Gold and $44 Silver Have Arrived
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (09-23-2025)
I’ve been up very late / very early, feasting on snacks and watching the glowing computer monitor as gold futures just went up and tagged $3,800 and silver futures just went up and tagged $44.44. (at this point early on Tuesday morning both levels have actually been surpassed)
My main takeaway is simply – We are still solidly in the acceleration phase of a rip-roaring PM bull market here… but we are getting up into rarified air.
Regardless, I figured it would be a good idea to blast out this brief “flash update” to readers here that may not be glued to their screens (like this commodities nerd is).
So, let’s get into it…
As of the time of writing this, Gold Futures are up well over $3,800 making new all-time highs, yet again…
Remember when people thought $1,375 would never get eclipsed again?
Remember when $1,450 got tagged to the downside during the pandemic crash and then pundits got worried that the $1,045 Major Low from December 2015 was going get retested again to start a new bear market?
Remember when people said gold would never breach the 2011 high of $1923 ever again, (and that we wouldn’t want to live in the world where that could happen?)
Remember when $2,000-$2,100 gold was the ceiling for so long?
Remember when $3,000 gold seemed like a far off target?
Remember the $3,200 – $3,400 price channel for a few months earlier this year?
Now gold futures have officially eclipsed $3,800!
The gold price is now only a couple hundred bucks away from $4,000.
Just for a moment, consider where the average gold price for Q3 2025 is going to come in at, and what that means for the margins of the gold producers. 😉
Also consider what the economic studies of most gold developers will look like when they are run at these current spot prices. You’ll have to calculate those NPVs on your own, because most company slide decks are still using an $1,800 - $2,400 base case, and then have their upside cases on the sensitivities tables at $3,000 gold or maybe $3,500. (In effect, their upside cases are now downside cases.)
Now, further consider that most of the development-stage projects are still being valued at $20-$60 an ounce in the ground, while the current margins for gold producers are $1,500-$2,000+ per ounce pulled out of the ground.
Does anybody else spot the wild mismatch here, and future potential for a rerating in some of these projects?
Is the market ever going to start valuing these projects at least at $100-$300 per ounce in the ground… just for starters?
If so, then what would the market caps, and associated share prices need to do adjust up to those valuations?
Silver futures shot up to $44.44 as I was munching on snacks, and I almost spit them out when pulling up that futures chart.
“Hi-Yo Silver Away!”
$44 silver is a very healthy price for the silver producers to be selling into here at the end of September.
I’m not sure what the average price of silver has been in Q3 ($38.50? $39? $40?), but the producers with meaningful silver exposure are going to have bang-up Q3 earnings reports in a couple of months.
It was nice to see some outsized moves yesterday in a number of the Silver producers, once silver punched through $44. Some stocks like Silvercorp, Endeavour Silver, First Majestic, Silver X, Kuya, and Impact were up double digits on Monday.
Symbol – Company Name – Daily Change (%) [portfolio positions in bold]
SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +17.27%
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +15.68%
AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +14.31%
AGX.V Silver X Mining Corp. +11.76%
KUYA.CN Kuya Silver Corporation +11.58%
IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. +10.71%
SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +9.36%
GSVR.V Guanajuato Silver Company Ltd. +8.00%
GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +7.48%
APM.TO Andean Precious Metals +7.23%
AYA.TO Aya Gold & Silver Inc. +6.54%
USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +4.33%
FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. +4.29%
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +2.58%
PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +2.50%
HL Hecla Mining Company +2.46%
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +1.72%
SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +1.58%
HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc +0.85%
FRES.L Fresnillo plc +0.25%
SM.V Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. 0.00%
There were also some really nice moves in many of the Silver explorers and developers for Monday’s close, on the back of the move above $44 silver prices.
Symbol – Silver Explorers and Developers – Daily Change (%)
MASS.V Masivo Silver Corp. +33.33%
SAND.CN Silver Sands Resources Corp. +33.33%
SWLF.V Silver Wolf Exploration Ltd. +20.00%
BML.AX Boab Metals Limited +17.33%
ZAC.V Zacatecas Silver Corp. +15.79%
ABRA.TO AbraSilver Resource Corp. +14.36%
SXL.V Slam Exploration Ltd. +14.29%
DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +14.00%
GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +13.79%
DEC.V Decade Resources Ltd. +12.50%
DSV.TO Discovery Silver Corp. +12.37% (also a gold producer now)
EQTY.V Equity Metals Corporation +11.63%
MSV.TO Minco Silver Corporation +11.48%
SLVR.V Silver Tiger Metals Inc. +11.27%
CFE.CN Cartier Silver Corporation +11.11%
ARD.AX Argenta Minerals Limited +11.11%
SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +10.96%
MKR.AX Manuka Resources Limited +10.00%
BAG.V Blende Silver Corp. +10.00%
VIPR.V Silver Viper Minerals Corp. +9.88%
MMG.V Metallic Minerals Corp. +9.59%
APGO.V Apollo Silver Corp. +9.09%
SDR.V Stroud Resources Ltd. +9.09%
PLA.V Plata Latina Minerals Corporation +9.09%
NUAG.TO New Pacific Metals Corp. +7.58%
CCM.TO Canagold Resources Ltd. +7.53%
SVL.AX Silver Mines Limited +6.67%
TUF.V Honey Badger Silver Inc. +6.52%
AGA.V Silver47 Exploration Corp. +6.41%
AZT.V Aztec Minerals Corp. +6.25%
SAG.V Sterling Metals Corp. +6.15%
AAG.V Aftermath Silver Ltd. +6.00%
CD.V Cantex Mine Development Corp. +5.88%
RYO.V Rio Silver Inc. +5.88%
SLV.CN Silver Dollar Resources Inc. +5.56%
DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +5.44%
KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc. +5.41%
OCG.V Outcrop Silver & Gold Corporation +5.33%
VZLA Vizsla Silver Corp. +4.53%
VML.V Viscount Mining Corp. +3.75%
SVRS.V Silver Storm Mining Ltd. +3.41%
CKG.V Chesapeake Gold Corp. +2.87%
BNKR.V Bunker Hill Mining Corp. +2.78%
SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +2.78%
ELO.TO Eloro Resources Ltd. +2.50%
SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +2.44%
AZS.V Arizona Gold & Silver Inc. +2.27%
Monday was just one day, but it epitomized solid bull market action in the silver stocks. Hopefully we can follow that up with another banger of a day here on Tuesday.
The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index remains buried at 100%
The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) has remained buried at a 100% bullish reading the last few weeks (with one move down to 96% 2 weeks back).
A move to 100 on the ($BPGDM) back in the summers of 2016 and 2020 preceded multi-year sector corrections by about a month.
I’m not saying that we necessarily have to see that same pattern play out this time as we switch from Summer to Fall here in 2025, because we are in a much more solid acceleration phase of this bull market now, and the market breadth can stay bullish longer than people expect.
What I am hinting at though, is that if we saw the PM markets cool down a bit heading into October, then it wouldn’t really be a surprise; considering we’re at max bullishness on this breadth and sentiment indicator.
As this PM bull market rages on… I’m feeling more and more compelled to keep pairing back (ever so slightly) some winning positions into this further strength. The goal is to raise some more cash in my trading account and get my dry powder from 7% up to 10%, as we head into the end of September.
Thus far I’m happy to have been using a scalpel versus a chainsaw for the minimal trimming I’ve done here in September; but I’ll likely do a bit more position pruning here on Tuesday into this further strength. {that is not investment advice in the slightest… I’m just sharing what I’m doing inside of my own portfolio of resource stocks, with my own capital… and strictly for entertainment purposes.}
Don’t worry, I’m still all bulled up for the PM sector medium to longer-term, and personally still have PLENTY of exposure to the sector!
Having said that, it would be insane of me not to shave off a small portion of the winnings when my portfolio contains over 30 PM positions up at triple-digit gains. (some positions are up 200% 300%, 400%, and one up over 600% and one even up over 800%…
So, I’m just going to take a small pile of those chips off the table here; just in the off chance that we get some kind of black swan market event in October or a normal corrective consolidation of this recent September surge to new highs.
Anecdotally, I’m often an early trimmer; but as the saying goes… “nobody ever got really hurt pulling a profit.”
For today: The trimming of the trees that I’m contemplating are just going to be small 5%-10% position reductions across some of the more stretched positions.
Well, that’s it for this flash update here very early Tuesday morning. It seemed appropriate that these precious metals milestones needed a few brief trading reflections.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
Shad